Niners Nation
ESPN’s Seth Walder used their FPI simulation for the last three weeks of the season and came up with the most likely field of 14 playoff teams and exact seeding order for each team in each conference. In addition to the regular season standings and playoff bracket, they projected the Super Bowl LX winner.
The scores for the San Francisco 49ers are a bit comical. Let’s start with Week 16, when the simulation has the Seahawks taking down the Rams on Thursday, which opens the door for the Niners to control their destiny. The 49ers beat the Colts on Monday night by a score of 10 to 6—quite the barn burner.
Let’s jump to Week 17. The FPI simulation has the Rams beating the Falcons and the Panthers shocking the Seahawks. That’s an upset that will make 49ers fans happy.
Unfortunately, Sunday night football didn’t go well, as the Bears beat the 49ers on the road. The score comes out to 12-6, which could very well be the total by the end of the first quarter. That puts the Rams back on track for the No. 1 seed. So, the 49ers get to draw up the scenario of a first-round bye for roughly five hours.
In Week 18, the simulation has the Rams beating the Cardinals by two touchdowns, and the Seahawks exacting revenge against the Niners in a 31-10 blowout.
Once the dust settles, the Rams are the No. 1 seed, with the Seahawks and Niners getting the fifth and sixth seeds, respectively. So, the same as they are entering Week 16.
The simulation has the Bucs taking down Seattle 21-13, while the 49ers route the Eagles 34-24. It’s the playoffs, and you never know what to expect, but there’s a very real chance each outcome could happen. I think it’s likelier that Kyle Shanahan gets the best of Nick Sirianni, but Sam Darnold traveling across the country and losing wouldn’t surprise anybody.
The other result matters now that the sixth seed has won. Chicago finishes as the No. 2 seed and hosts the Packers. This simulation has Green Bay winning comfortably, which means San Francisco travels to Tampa Bay, and the Packers face the Rams.
The buck stops here for the 49ers in this hypothetical. They have Tampa Bay beating the 49ers for the second time this season, with a score of 23-10, while the Rams beat the Packers by two touchdowns.
I believe the results would be much different if the Niners meet the Bucs again, and I would be shocked if Shanahan’s offense didn’t get north of 30. But the overarching point is that Shanahan’s coaching prowess should never be questioned, given that he got this team to win a playoff game with the current roster.
Since we’re doing hypotheticals, how fitting would it be that Fred Warner would have a chance to return and face the team in the playoffs in the same stadium where he dislocated his ankle? Now that would make for a...
