Daily Norseman
We’re almost there, folks: training camp.
While the NFL offseason is tediously long, I’m usually fine and adequately preoccupied with baseball and the usual summer activities that fill evenings and weekends. The World Cup was also a welcome distraction this year.
Nonetheless, when the MLB All-Star Break hits, the itch becomes impossible to scratch, and football season can’t arrive soon enough.
The focus will be on the quarterback competition. Since I last touched on the topic a few weeks ago, the odds have shifted ever so slightly in J.J. McCarthy’s favor (-770, 88.5% implied probability, down from -1000, 90.9%).
Regardless, it can still comfortably be filed under “shock” if Kyler Murray isn’t under center in Week 1. How I feel and what I want are utterly irrelevant. The important thing is that the Vikings’ front office has secured the appropriate insurance policy with Murray and (a healthy) Carson Wentz to ensure last year’s quarterback situation is not repeated. Good luck to Kyler and J.J., and whatever happens, happens.
There’ll be plenty of time to analyze and discuss all of that soon enough. For the purpose of this article, I’d like to take a look at the Top 5 non-QB competition-related storylines I’ll be focused on when training camp begins in a few days.
KOC Scheme Tweaks? Year 5 is always a tricky spot for head coaches, especially those who also call plays. Tendencies are well known, and situational preferences are closely scouted. It’s wise at this point to consider new looks, or at minimum, tweaks to established norms. Stubbornness and a refusal to do so can be counterproductive.
Take Mike Zimmer. He was a “the scheme is the scheme” guy. I specifically remember misplaced confidence, in quotes, before the 2020 season. The result? It was fantastic from 2014-2019, but then it literally fell off a cliff. There was no gradual decline; it went from great to horrific in record time.
I certainly don’t expect that from KOC, but perhaps slightly less reliance on 11 Personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) and addressing pass-vs.-run balance and short-yardage criticisms wouldn’t hurt.
In 2025, 11 Personnel was used for approximately 60-65% of snaps, and 55-70% in prior seasons. This comes as the Vikings were effective in EPA/pass metrics out of 12 Personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) when it’s been used upwards of 25% of the time.
KOC could look no further than his mentor, Sean McVay, and what McVay did with the Rams last year. He embraced 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs, 1 WR) far more than ever before, with tremendous results. I can’t get over this:
From 2021-24, Los Angeles used 13 personnel on just six plays total, and against the Jaguars, they ran 13 personnel on nearly 40% of their snaps.
The Vikings could definitely benefit from some unpredictability this season. Likewise, given that Murray is among the most mobile QBs in history and many of McCarthy’s best highlights came from him creating plays on the ground,...
