Turf Show Times
After beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football in Week 12, the Los Angeles Rams took over as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That lasted all of one week as following the Week 13 loss to the Carolina Panthers, the Rams no longer control their own destiny. With the loss, the Chicago Bears took over as the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the Rams’ margin for error got a lot smaller.
Had the Rams simply beaten the teams they were supposed to, while splitting with the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions, they would have locked up the number one seed. After losing to the Panthers, it’s hard to see the Rams taking the NFC’s No. 1 seed without sweeping the Seahawks. In fact, they potentially need to win out.
Following the loss to the Panthers, the Rams still have a high chance at the number one seed, but it has dropped. According to DVOA playoff odds, the Rams have a 36.2 percent chance of obtaining the No. 1 seed. ESPN has the Rams with a 30 percent chance to earn the No. 1 seed and a bye week.
Over the past few years, the Rams have prioritized simply getting in the playoffs. It’s why they have sat their starters in Week 18 each of the last two seasons despite not having seeding locked up. The Rams risked getting the No. 7 seed in 2024 and then settled for the No. 4 seed last year.
Did it change anything? Likely not. However, the Rams ended up having to go on the road in each of their playoff losses. That’s what makes the No. 1 seed so important.
As the lower seed and playing on the road, Matthew Stafford is 1-5 in his career which includes a 1-2 record with the Rams. Since 2017, the Rams are 2-3 in such games under Sean McVay. However, as the home team, Stafford is 4-0 which includes a 3-0 record at SoFi Stadium. McVay hasn’t lost a home playoff game since his first season in 2017. That doesn’t mention that the Rams are 5-1 at home this season.
Stafford has not thrown an interception at SoFi Stadium in 2025. Defensively, the Rams have allowed 15.2 points per game at home. On the road, they have allowed 19.8 points per game and both games they’ve allowed more than 30 points have come away from home.
The goal for this team shouldn’t be just to get in the dance. While they may have confidence that they can beat any team in any venue, there are certainly ways to make their path easier. This is a team that needs to avoid making road trips to Chicago, Philadelphia, Green Bay, or Seattle in January where weather would almost certainly be a factor.
It’s also worth noting how much of an advantage having the No. 1 seed is since the NFL adjusted its playoff format. There isn’t much correlation between teams with bye weeks...
