New England Patriots - NESN.com
The New England Patriots are, in most minds, expected to be better in 2025.
It’d be hard to be much worse than they were in 2023 and 2024, when they went 4-13 in both seasons.
How much better the Patriots will be this year is a debate on many fans’ minds, however.
Mike Vrabel is one of seven new NFL head coaches entering the 2025 campaign and unfortunately for the former linebacker, is in a tough spot, according to ESPN’s Neil Paine.
The sportswriter ranked all seven first-year coaches on Sunday in order of who is in the best position to win with their new group. Vrabel is sixth on the list, only ahead of New Orleans first-year leader Kellen Moore.
“We set out to quantify what kind of situation each of 2025’s new head coaches is walking into,” Paine wrote. “Specifically, we created a regression model that looks at last season’s team quality (using a mix of Elo ratings and SRS ratings); average roster age across offense, defense and special teams; and the age and track record of their quarterbacks (using a QB’s established level of Approximate Value, or AV, per season from the past three years).”
Paine added that “each coach will change the trajectory of the franchise from here on out in his own way,” so fans should “think of these rankings less as predictions and more as snapshots of the foundations they’re starting from.”
Using the regression model, New England’s expected five-year win total is 38.8, averaging 7.76 victories per season over the span.
“Everyone agreed that Vrabel’s reunion with the Patriots made far too much sense to not happen. With it, there will be an infusion of that familiar Belichickian ethos of no-nonsense grit, plus the experience of a coach who went 54-45 with three playoff appearances in five years with the Tennessee Titans,” Paine wrote. “Still, expecting a true revival of the Pats’ dynasty is a bit premature. Maye’s passing efficiency remains a work in progress, though his mobility propped up his QBR. The team was one of just seven with an SRS rating of -1.9 or worse on both sides of the ball, which was a sign of how much renovation was needed. However, an offseason spending spree has locked them into a bunch of big bets right away — a risk when we consider how unpredictable the outcomes of offseason moves can be. All of this explains why the Patriots rank lower than their fit with Vrabel would seem to indicate.”
Since achieving an iconic run of success with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady from 2001 to 2019, the Patriots have made the playoffs only once in the past five years and missed the postseason each of the past three campaigns.
Vrabel had a mostly successful run with the Titans and now, back with the franchise he played eight seasons with, he’s looking to get the Patriots back to their winning ways.
