NFL Week 16 betting advice: Giants-Vikings picks and props

Welcome to the New York Giants betting angle, Week 16 edition. Each week, I’m giving you my three favorite wagers for that week’s New York Giants game. My one rule: I won’t ever give you wagers that are less than -120. No gimmies here.

The Giants had high hopes for a win at home last week, but ran their losing streak to eight games when they fell 29-21 to a Commanders team that came in riding their own eight-game losing streak. Big Blue stays at home this Sunday to face another losing team with nothing to play for – the 6-8 Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have disappointed after their 14-3 campaign a year ago, but they’ve won two straight behind a resurgent J.J. McCarthy. This is their third consecutive game against an NFC East opponent and they’re looking for the sweep. Much like the Giants, one of the Vikings’ priorities this season has been to try to figure out if their long-term answer at quarterback is on their current roster.

The line on FanDuel is MIN -2.5, with a game total of 43.5. Temperatures in the 40s accompanied by light to moderate winds are expected in East Rutherford on Sunday afternoon, so December weather shouldn’t be an issue.

My picks were 2-1 last week. Both of my props hit, but my spread bet on the G-Men missed. The line and total are stay-aways for me this week. I’m done trying to predict if on any given week these Giants will cover a number, and especially with their special teams regularly costing them points. For a team that’s 2-12, they’re maddening to handicap against the spread (7-7 ATS).

Here are this week’s picks. All lines and odds are from FanDuel and are as of Friday, Dec. 19.

1. Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (+125). I’ll start this week’s action with a bet with longer odds. Why not? It’s Week 16 – let’s take some risk to win some holiday shopping money! Jefferson has been invisible the last three weeks. He hasn’t topped 25 yards or scored in any of those contests – it’s the worst three-game stretch of his brilliant young career. He also only has two TD catches on the entire season. So why on earth am I taking this prop? Why am I taking something that’s this far into plus-money when I’m trying to have a winning record with my picks? And why should you consider listening to me? Good questions, all. My reasoning: I believe the slump ends Sunday, against a vulnerable Giants’ secondary that has proven all year that it can’t cover a wideout like Jefferson. Jefferson had one TD called back last week, and another slipped through his hands when McCarthy threw him a Randy Johnson fastball when he didn’t need to. I think Minnesota will make a concerted effort to end the JJ-JJ slump this week, and Jefferson will spike the football at least once. It’s contrarian, but hey, sometimes you have to zag.

• **Aaron...