NFL Week 10 betting advice: Giants-Bears picks and props

Welcome to the New York Giants betting angle, Week 10 edition. Each week, I’m giving you my three favorite wagers for that week’s New York Giants game. My one rule: I won’t ever give you wagers that are less than -120. No gimmies!

The 2-7 Giants head to Chicago to face the 5-3 Bears this week. The teams are on opposite trajectories, with the Giants having lost three in row while the Bears have won four of their last five. Chicago’s first-year head coach Ben Johnson is installing a winning culture, while New York head coach Brian Daboll’s last chance to hold onto his job is slipping away.

A key matchup in this game is Chicago’s rushing attack (which has been cooking) against the Giants’ run defense (which has been getting cooked). The Bears are second in the NFL at 144 rushing yards per contest, while the Big Blue defense ranks 31st at 150 rushing yards surrendered per game. The Bears also lead the NFL in takeaways with 19, and have a turnover differential of +13, while the Giants have only forced six turnovers, and have a differential of -3.

The line on FanDuel is CHI -4.5, with a game total of 46.5. Other sites have it at either 3.5 or 4. The stats above are strong betting signals for this contest, but I don’t like taking the Bears past four points. They just aren’t that good. The line is a stay-away for me. I was all set to jump on the over, but November is here and the weather forecast gives me pause. There could be a little snow in Chicago on Sunday. Really. Game-time temperatures are forecasted to be in the 30s, with gusty winds and occasional precipitation.

My picks were 1-2 last week, after a perfect 3-0 the week before.

Here are this week’s picks. All lines and odds are from FanDuel and are as of Friday, November 7.

1. Tyrone Tracy, Jr. UNDER 45.5 rushing yards (-114). An interesting sub-plot for this game (especially for fantasy football and wagering) is how the running back shares will play out for each team. Who is the RB1 for Big Blue? Most observers assumed Tracy would be the lead back after Cam Skattebo’s season ended in Week 8. About that…last week, Tracy was out-snapped 32-25 by Devin Singletary, and Singletary also had the edge in carries, 8-5. The Giants trailed for the entire second half, which suppressed their rushing attempts. That could repeat this week. In any case, the Bears are more vulnerable through the air, and I have a hard time seeing Tracy (whose high game this season is 46 rushing yards) getting to this total.

• D’Andre Swift ANYTIME TD (-105). Before he missed last week’s game with a groin injury, Swift had scored in four straight contests. There’s a real risk that he takes a backseat to rookie Kyle Monangai after last week’s explosion, but that was against the Bengals and I still think Swift will...