For The Win
We’ve got three games left to decide an NFL champion and one Sunday to determine who makes it to Super Bowl 59. In a year dominated by favorites, I’m making a stupid bet; two road underdogs in the biggest game of their respective seasons.
I’m tossing my vote behind the Washington Commanders and Buffalo Bills in the chalkiest NFL betting season in a decade. And, incredibly, I’m not alone. Our seven-person panel is effectively split on 2025’s conference championship games, which bodes well for Sunday’s excitement if not our overall picks records.
What’s the appeal behind a Jayden Daniels-Josh Allen Super Bowl? You know, beyond the obvious? Let’s dig in and make some AFC and NFC title game picks.
I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.
Joining me for 2024 is a six-person attaché ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph and Meghan Hall). Here are our Wild Card picks:
GameChristianRobert****CharlesCommanders at EaglesCommandersCommandersCommandersBills at ChiefsBillsBillsBillsLast week:2-22-23-1***Regular Season:******190-82 (.699)******180-92 (.662)******190-82 (.699)******Playoffs:******5-5 (.500)******6-4 (.600)******7-3 (.700)***and:
GameMaryPrinceMegAndrewCommanders at EaglesEaglesEaglesEaglesEaglesBills at ChiefsBillsChiefsChiefsChiefsLast week:3-12-22-22-2***Regular Season:******179-78 (.696)******183-89 (.673)******160-69 (.699)******185-74 (.714)******Playoffs:******7-3 (.700)******5-5 (.500)******6-4 (.600)******6-4 (.600)***Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:
Let’s scrap the usual categories thanks to a two-game slate and dive in:
Why I like this pick:
Jayden Daniels has been so incredibly good, composed beyond his years and processing quickly as opposing defenses ramp up their intensity against him. He’s been sacked only once in his first playoff run and even that was for a loss of zero yards as he made it back to the line of scrimmage.
His ability to progress through chaos has meant turning Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus and a 34-year-old Zach Ertz into playmaking threats and it’s worked. The quarterback on the other side of the ball is Jalen Hurts, who has an experience edge but underwhelmed last week and may be playing hurt Sunday after taking some brutal hits against the Los Angeles Rams.
Why I don’t like this pick:
Saquon Barkley gets to face the league’s 27th-ranked run defense. Even a diminished Jalen Hurts should be able to do enough to capitalize when Washington inevitably tries to stack the box after four straight first down runs. The Philadelphia secondary rose up last week to make big plays and now veterans like Darius Slay and C.J. Gardner-Johnson get to take aim at a rookie quarterback.
Why I like this pick:
Josh Allen is a monster and he’s got the ground support to clear space for his dynamic...
