Windy City Gridiron
Welcome back to STEP Differential. STEP stands for Sack + Turnover(x2) + Explosive Play Differential. As I have said many times, there are no perfect statistics, so please don’t mistake this for trying to be that. However, I think it provides an incredibly interesting view into overall team health and tells an interesting story as we navigate another NFL season. Since we’re fully halfway through the regular season schedule, I’m switching over the the other graph sets where I show each individual component mapped on a 2×2 square. You can find those on pages 2-4 of the Infogram below:
I’m not sure enough people are talking about the Broncos being on pace for breaking the single season sack record. Holy smokes they’re crushing it and it has them all the way up to second in STEP Differential behind the Rams. The Rams lead the way with a strong showing in all three categories. They’re going to be tough to beat. The Falcons somehow lost in New England despite winning the turnover battle 2-0 and sacking Drake Maye 6 times. The +9 STEP Differential loss is the a stunning mark and would have been the only one of its kind last year. They moved up the rankings significantly but lost the game. Not cool for the graph, but it is what it is. STEP Differential would bet against the Panthers and 49ers but likes the Texans and Falcons to turn things around.
I can’t resist a Jets update and this thing is only going to get worse after the trade deadline. I didn’t notice this until I plotted each individual component but the Jets have a total of one (1) takeaway on the year. One. How is that possible?
Note that slide 5 shows the records of teams for each individual game’s STEP Differential and then a chart of all games in the 2024 season. I will work to make a 2025 chart in the near future.
