Windy City Gridiron
Last year, I started tracking a stat every week that was inspired by Brian Billick’s “Toxic Differential” statistic that combined explosive play and turnover differential into a single number. My version added sacks to the mix and doubled the value of turnovers. I called the statistic “Toxic Differential Plus” as an homage to Billick’s original idea.
In an effort to make the name a little more intuitive, I’m rebranding Toxic Differential Plus to STEP Differential. STEP stands for Sack + Turnover(x2) + Explosive Play Differential. As I have said many times, there are no perfect statistics, so please don’t mistake this for trying to be that. However, I think it provides an incredibly interesting view into overall team health and tells an interesting story as we navigate another NFL season.
I’m using Infogram again this year:
For the second week in a row, the only team with a positive STEP Differential number with a losing record is the Houston Texans. I’m fascinated by the Jets. A -49 through seven weeks of the season could set up for an epic number. Last year’s Browns finished at -101 and the Jets are already close to halfway. Maybe this is exactly what they wanted as they are headed for the number one pick at this rate. The Falcons have run hot and cold so far this year but their underlying numbers say they’re going to be a good football team. Vikings might be bad – they’ve got a couple wins on their ledger that they were fortunate in pulling out. It will be interesting to see if they can improve or if they’re going to be a disappointment this year.
Since this is a Bears site, we should probably mention that last week’s domination of the Saints (+10 STEP) vaults them into the top 5(!!!). Keep that up and this will be a team playing competitive football in January.
I have kept the previous end of year data going back to 2020 on the slides (click through on the chart if you’re interested). Around mid-season I will switch up the charts and show each component stat on a 2×2 chart like last year.
