NFL “STEP Differential” Week 6 2025

NFL “STEP Differential” Week 6 2025
Windy City Gridiron Windy City Gridiron

Last year, I started tracking a stat every week that was inspired by Brian Billick’s “Toxic Differential” statistic that combined explosive play and turnover differential into a single number. My version added sacks to the mix and doubled the value of turnovers. I called the statistic “Toxic Differential Plus” as an homage to Billick’s original idea.

In an effort to make the name a little more intuitive, I’m rebranding Toxic Differential Plus to STEP Differential. STEP stands for Sack + Turnover(x2) + Explosive Play Differential. As I have said many times, there are no perfect statistics, so please don’t mistake this for trying to be that. However, I think it provides an incredibly interesting view into overall team health and tells an interesting story as we navigate another NFL season.

I’m using Infogram again this year:

Six weeks into the NFL season and it feels like the STEP Differential statistic is starting to stabilize. The only team with a positive STEP Differential number with a losing record is the Houston Texans. The team with the biggest negative differential with a winning record is the 49ers and they’re a mess on the injury front. I keep harping on it, but the Chiefs were not great in this stat last year and just kept finding ways to win games. This year, their luck has evened out in close games despite them being in the positive for the stat. Anyone that’s been tracking this column shouldn’t have been shocked by their huge win this week to get back to .500. Jets continue to be very bad. Already a minus 41 through six games, the Jets could push last year’s Browns at -101 for worst in recent memory. Woof.

I have kept the previous end of year data going back to 2020 on the slides (click through on the chart if you’re interested). Around mid-season I will switch up the charts and show each component stat on a 2×2 chart like last year.