Windy City Gridiron
Last year, I started tracking a stat every week that was inspired by Brian Billick’s “Toxic Differential” statistic that combined explosive play and turnover differential into a single number. My version added sacks to the mix and doubled the value of turnovers. I called the statistic “Toxic Differential Plus” as an homage to Billick’s original idea.
In an effort to make the name a little more intuitive, I’m rebranding Toxic Differential Plus to STEP Differential. STEP stands for Sack + Turnover(x2) + Explosive Play Differential. As I have said many times, there are no perfect statistics, so please don’t mistake this for trying to be that. However, I think it provides an incredibly interesting view into overall team health and tells an interesting story as we navigate another NFL season.
I’m using Infogram again this year:
Most teams are above or below the .500 mark five weeks into the season with the exceptions being the 2-2 Falcons and Bears and the 2-2-1 Cowboys, but I’ll divide the right side of the graph up this way for awhile. The team that sticks out the most on the positive side of the graph is the Chiefs at +18. They struggled in STEP Differential last year but just kept grinding out close wins. This year, they’re keeping Patrick Mahomes clean, winning the turnover battle, and limiting opponent explosive plays, but losing those one-score games that seemed inevitable for the last half decade. My instinct is to say the Chiefs will be fine and the record will even out. On the other side of the chart, the Patriots sit at -11 but have a winning record at 3-2. They have not been able to keep Drake Maye clean (and he runs into a lot of sacks) and they have done a poor job of limiting explosive plays on the back end. My sense is that they’re punching above their weight in the early going.
I have kept the previous end of year data going back to 2020 on the slides (click through on the chart if you’re interested). Around mid-season I will switch up the charts and show each component stat on a 2×2 chart like last year.
