Windy City Gridiron
Welcome back to STEP Differential. STEP stands for Sack + Turnover(x2) + Explosive Play Differential. Make sure you’re flipping through pages 2-5 to see everything broken out by component and the overall performance of the STEP Differential in individual games. Infogram below:
Maybe Ben Johnson was the difference for the Lions the last few years, maybe it is just coincidence, but it is interesting that the Bears (+47) have been able to grind out close wins while the Lions (+38) are a long shot to get into the playoffs this year after losing another close one this week. They still have a good infrastructure, obviously, but it’s looking like a lost season in the competitive NFC landscape.
The craziest game in STEP this year happened on Thursday night with the Seahawks winning despite losing the STEP Differential by 10. Both are good teams, obviously, but a lot of the OTHER things that go into football games all broke right for the Seahawks to pull that one off. Since 1999, it’s the first game that a team with a -10 differential won, moving that record to 158-1. Only two other instances have a higher differential on the losing end – a 2002 game between the Panthers and Cowboys (Panthers +11, lost by 1), and a 2022 Titans and Giants game (Titans +12, lost by 1).
We continue to look at the Jets to see if they have a shot at last year’s mark for awful set by the Browns. The Jets sit at -91, only 10 points to spare between their terrible season and last year’s mark of -101 by Cleveland. They’ve got the Patriots and the Bills left. It seems like a lock at this point. They are, however, up to four takeaways, which seemed impossible only a few weeks ago when they were stuck at one.
The Denver Broncos are sitting at 63 sacks on the season, far and away the best mark in the league. They are nine sacks away from tying the 1984 Chicago Bears for most in league history and will face the Chiefs and Chargers to close out the year. The Chiefs were just obliterated by the Titans, giving up four sacks to the 3-12 squad. The Broncos will want to see if they can tee off against the rival Chiefs as they’ll likely start third string QB Chris Oladokun. The Chargers have been one of the more generous offenses in giving up sacks with 51 on the year, including 5 in the first matchup. I think this sets up for the Broncos to make a serious run at the record.
