Windy City Gridiron
Welcome back to STEP Differential. STEP stands for Sack + Turnover(x2) + Explosive Play Differential. Make sure you’re flipping through pages 2-5 to see everything broken out by component and the overall performance of the STEP Differential in individual games. Infogram below:
Not a lot of surprises with respect to the statistic as the only wins in negative territory were two negative one outcomes and one negative two game. The Bears were in control of their game over the Eagles despite owning one of the -1 STEP games largely because they controlled the ball on the ground. The Bears recorded five runs over 10 yards, where some statistic sites draw the line for an explosive run. Others draw it at 12 yards and I’ve seen it listed as 15 yards in other places. I’ve chosen to keep explosive runs at 20 because the data is readily available and can be replicated to those of you out there that like that sort of thing. However, it is probably a worthwhile endeavor to pull explosive run data at each level and see if there are differences in game and season performance.
I haven’t watched a lot of Falcons games this year but I’ll be they are infuriating to their fanbase. They are now 0-5 in one score games and are outperforming their record in many areas. They have a positive differential in all three of the STEP components, which only five other teams in the league can say. All of those teams have winning records.
One of the biggest things I’m watching the rest of the year is the Broncos quest for the single season sack record. They currently sit at 51, 21 behind the 1984 Chicago Bears at 72. They are exactly on pace to match that mark and have a couple of great opportunities to add to their total including their next game against the Raiders (46 sacks allowed). I’m also tracking the Jets defense, who got their second takeaway over the weekend. That low total is likely to set a record for futility. I also noticed the Saints with only 21 explosive plays on offense. I’ll need to dive into the data more but that feels noteworthy as they are eight behind the Browns. Might be another futility record.
