Windy City Gridiron
Welcome back to STEP Differential. STEP stands for Sack + Turnover(x2) + Explosive Play Differential. Make sure you’re flipping through pages 2-5 to see everything broken out by component and the overall performance of the STEP Differential in individual games. Infogram below:
The Rams (+70) finish as the best team in STEP Differential for the 2025 season. They’re one of the best teams in the league and despite entering the tournament as the 5 seed, the NFC favorite in my eyes. The Bears (+52) finish second, thanks in large part to their huge advantage in turnover differential – first in both takeaways and giveaways – and the sack avoidance of Caleb Williams. What an amazing turnaround Ben Johnson’s crew has orchestrated.
The Jets finish at -104, which is the worst mark going back to at least 2006 in a single season. It’s a dreadful, dreadful result. They had the worst turnover differential in the league, the worst sack differential in the league, and the worst explosive play differential in the league. That’s how you set a record.
As for the teams that stick out, the best team in the NFC South missed the playoffs. Yes, I’m talking about the Atlanta Falcons, who found creative ways to lose football games this year. Their +40 to miss the playoffs is the most since the 2019 Rams (+60). The Falcons Week 18 win over the Saints propelled the Panthers (-15) into the playoffs despite their final week loss to the Bucs (+11). The Falcons would’ve hosted the Rams, who they just beat in Week 17, had they not squandered just one of those games early on in the season and taken the division. But alas, they fired everyone and will start over. They’re an interesting bet to win the South next year in my opinion.
That leaves us with the Lions (+32) and the 49ers (-17). The Lions finished 9-8, a half game out of the playoff picture. They were fine this year, just a far cry from their Super Bowl aspirations. The 49ers grabbing the 6 seed despite their lack of pass rush and leaky secondary will be interesting to see how far they can go. History would tell us to not trust a team with a negative STEP score in the playoffs so this will be an excellent test for the statistic.
Once the playoffs wrap up, I’m going to do a deep dive on the statistic for an off season project. Thanks to everyone for following along all season.
