Acme Packing Company
I don’t think you should really ever wager on sports, and believe me, this is not betting advice. If you follow any betting advice from me, you’ll get exactly what you deserve. But here at the mid-ish point of the NFL season, I think there are a few undervalued teams hanging around out there. First, I’ll wager this is the last time you can get Baltimore at anything close to +1700 Super Bowl odds. I know none of us trust the Ravens when it actually counts, and yes, they’re 3-5. But they have a supremely easy schedule in a horrific division, and with Lamar back and looking like Lamar, and Derrick Henry looking normal again, they probably make the playoffs, and once they’re in, they’re as good a bet as any team to get hot.
Might I also suggest Tampa at +2500? You may think that’s insane, but something very interesting has been happening in Tampa, and I’m not sure anyone has noticed. The offense has crashed out a bit due to a ton of injuries to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, and even nagging injuries to Emeka Egbuka. But do you remember early in the season when Baker was an MVP candidate? Well, while the Tampa offense cooled, their defense has been incredible. They are seventh overall in DVOA, with a nice balanced split of seventh against the pass and fifth against the run. EPA tells a similar story, where only Cleveland and Seattle stop the run better than Tampa, and only the Lions, Bills, Broncos, Rams, and Texans are better against the pass.
Tampa leads its division, and it’s pretty likely they’re able to hold off Tampa and Atlanta even while banged up. Mike Evans has a broken collarbone, but if they make the playoffs, he should (theoretically) be ready to go in time. Chris Godwin is still not practicing, but his injury is not supposed to be season-ending either. The Bucs will likely limp a bit down the stretch, but sometimes teams get healthy at just the right moment, and there’s a good chance this happens for Tampa.
The Pats are 11th in CALCULATOR this week, while the Ravens are up to 13th as one of the highest risers of the week, but I would also suggest taking a long look at the team sandwiched in between, the New England Patriots. The reason for this is that at this point, Drake Maye has lived up to the hype. He’s second in Ben Baldwin’s DAKOTA, fourth in EPA, and seventh in DVOA. He’s a star, and the best thing you can have in terms of winning Super Bowls is a star quarterback. Their defense is good, not great, and the quality of the skill positions is dependent on what you think of Kayshon Boutte, but this reminds me a bit of when the Bengals last made the Super Bowl, including Maye’s propensity for taking sacks.
But the real riser this week was Seattle, a team that has...
