Field Gulls
With their victory over the San Francisco 49ers last Saturday, the Seattle Seahawks secured the number one seed in the NFC. This is the fourth time in Seahawks history that they have finished in this position. The last time was in 2014, when Seattle also most recently made the Super Bowl.
Over the past decade, the No. 1 seed in both the AFC and NFC has remained the reference point of the NFL playoffs — just not in the automatic, fail-proof way many narratives still suggest. Finishing with the best record in the conference is still a real advantage, but it is increasingly dependent on how a team gets there, not simply the fact that it did. The bye week and home-field advantage matter, but they are not a shield against structural flaws.
Over the last 10 years (2015-2024, all post-Seahawks Super Bowl appearance), teams that earned the No. 1 seed generally met the baseline expectation: playing meaningful football late into January. Rest and home-field raise the competitive floor, reduce variance, and force opponents to win multiple road games. It is not a coincidence that the majority of these teams reached at least the Conference Championship round.
When looking at the No. 1 seeds that truly converted that position into postseason success, there is a clear pattern. The Chiefs, Eagles, and 49ers in their strongest years were not just efficient, they were structurally sound. A functional run game, dominance in the trenches, and defenses capable of winning on third-down without relying solely on turnovers consistently show up in teams that made it to February.
Early eliminations almost always came with warning signs that were ignored in December. The 2019 Ravens entered the playoffs as a historically efficient machine, only to fall in the Divisional Round when forced away from their offensive identity. The 2020 and 2021 Packers, both No. 1 seeds in the NFC, saw highly efficient offenses stall when the game demanded patience and short-area execution. The 2021 Titans, despite the bye and home-field advantage, were eliminated early due to an offense that could not sustain drives in critical moments.
These examples reinforce a familiar lesson: rest helps the body, but it does not fix structural problems. In some cases, it merely delays them until January exposes them in full.
Looking objectively at the 20 teams that earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC and NFC over the past 10 years, the numbers help frame the discussion clearly:
