NFL Playoffs 2026: ‘Experts’ have little confidence in Denver Broncos chances in Divisional Round

In an article this week on NFL.com, several analysts got together to give their confidence rankings of the remaining eight teams left in the NFL playoffs. And wouldn’t you know it, the Denver Broncos are second to last on the list with the Buffalo Bills as the top AFC contender in their eyes.

Even the New England Patriots and Houston Texans give them more feels as prognosticators. It seems there has never been a more hated one seed in recent memory.

Rank 7. Denver Broncos
No. 1 seed · 14-3

Total confidence score: 12 pts (of a possible 40)
Super Bowl odds: +700

This probably seems pretty low for a team that lost three games all year and gripped the top spot in the AFC standings for the final five weeks of the regular season. Their defense is a force (fifth in the NFL in EPA per play in the regular season), and their offense is respectable (10th in EPA per play). So what gives? Well, their schedule to date featured just six games against playoff-qualifying opponents, including two of their losses — and it’s not like they rampaged through the year, compiling a league-high 11 one-score wins and a point differential (+90) that stands below the rest of the surviving AFC field (+170 for the Patriots, +116 for the Bills and +109 for the Texans). Then there’s Bo Nix, who didn’t exactly dazzle down the stretch, throwing more TD passes than picks in two of his last nine games leading into his second career postseason start. The advantages of being the No. 1 seed are real, but can Denver rip off another winning streak against more dominant, experienced opponents, starting this weekend with the Bills? We have to pencil in a big, fat “TBD” for now, which is why the Broncos sit here. — Tom Blair

This has been a story the national media has replayed week after week with these Broncos. We shouldn’t be surprised that the hate continues into the playoffs despite the top seed in the conference.

The setup is predictable. If the Broncos lose, they will be loud and feel justified. If they win, then they’ll make excuses and the Broncos will likely be home underdogs again next week. Expect this hate to continue all the way through to the end of the season.

It’s the life of an OVERDOG.