NFL playoff picture: Top seed virtually out of reach for Patriots

NFL playoff picture: Top seed virtually out of reach for Patriots
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The New England Patriots were in the race for the top seed in the AFC for several weeks during their 10-game winning streak, but with three games left in the regular seasons their odds have taken a massive hit. After reaching as high as 59% on the Athletic playoff predictor, the chances of the conference running through Gillette Stadium are now down to 10%.

New England’s 35-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday had a major impact on that, but the Patriots were in a difficult situation to begin with entering Week 15. The Denver Broncos, who are now 73% favorites to end up as the No. 1 seed, held a tiebreaker advantage over the Patriots. As a consequence, they are now up two games with three left on the schedule.

The Patriots, meanwhile, are feeling teams breath down their neck. The Jacksonville Jaguars are only one game down and would also win in a tie due to their better conference record; meanwhile, the Bills are a game down as well, but could end up leap-frogging New England in the standings if the current AFC East leaders drop at least one of their two games against the division rival Jets and Dolphins in Weeks 17 or 18, respectively.

With that said, the AFC playoff picture now looks as follows:

AFC playoff picture after Week 15

  1. Denver Broncos (12-2)
  2. New England Patriots (11-3)
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
  5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
  6. Buffalo Bills (10-4)
  7. Houston Texans (9-5)

On the bubble: 8. Indianapolis Colts (8-6), 9. Baltimore Ravens (7-7)

*Eliminated: 10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-8), *11. Miami Dolphins (6-8)**, 12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-10), 13. New York Jets (3-11). 14. Cleveland Browns (3-11), 15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12), 16. Tennessee Titans (2-12)

The Patriots will visit a Ravens team this week very much fighting for its playoff life. While they cannot be eliminated just yet, a loss paired with a Steelers win over the Lions β€” a team itself very much trying to sneak its way into the postseason β€” would put Baltimore’s odds at a mere 10% with two games left. The team of head coach John Harbaugh and quarterback Lamar Jackson has struggled mightily with consistency as of late, but it is coming off a 24-0 shutdown win over Cincinnati.


The NFC playoff picture, meanwhile, looks as follows:

NFC playoff picture after Week 15

  1. Los Angeles Rams (11-3)
  2. Chicago Bears (10-4)
  3. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
  5. Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
  6. San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
  7. Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)

On the bubble: 8. Detroit Lions (8-6), 9. Carolina Panthers (7-7), 10. Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1),

Eliminated: 11. Minnesota Vikings (6-8), 12. Atlanta Falcons (5-9), 13. New Orleans Saints (4-10), 14. Washington Commanders (4-10), 15. Arizona Cardinals (3-11), 16. New York Giants (2-12)

With three weeks remaining, six teams have been eliminated from contention in the NFC. Two of the three currently on...