NFL Playoff Picture: Seahawks’ fate could once again be decided by rarely used tiebreaker

This tiebreaker hurt the Seahawks last year but could benefit them this year. Emphasis on could.

It’s time for a little math lesson to go along with an NFL playoff picture breakdown for the Seattle Seahawks.

Yes, losing badly to the Green Bay Packers while Geno Smith suffered a (thankfully, not serious) knee injury really sucked. But Seattle still can make the playoffs by winning out, and indeed with the right set of outcomes could clinch the NFC West in Week 17. If you’re here to say “Seattle has no shot to make the playoffs” then feel free to click on other content, because this article is not for you.

Today we are focusing on one specific scenario that is contingent upon the Seahawks beating the Minnesota Vikings, losing to the Chicago Bears (seriously), and the Los Angeles Rams winning against the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals. If the Seahawks beat the Rams in Week 18, that would put both teams at 10-7, and the top four tiebreakers in a division race would not separate them.

Division Tiebreakers

1. Head-to-head (Seahawks and Rams would be 1-1).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division (both would be 4-2)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games (both would be 8-6)
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference (both would be 6-6).

So what happens when those tiebreakers are exhausted?

That’s where “strength of victory” comes in.

Brian Nemhauser aka Hawkblogger noted the value of beating the Vikings but NOT the Bears.

If you use the ESPN playoff machine, Brian is 100% correct that Seattle would have the SOV tiebreaker. However, this is also a dynamic stat and can change depending on the W-L records of the teams beaten.

Unlike non-divisional opponents, SOV is actually easier to determine when comparing two teams from the same division. Under the parameters previously suggested in the article, we can compare which teams the Seahawks and Rams have beaten.

Seattle Seahawks wins (under hypothetical scenario)

Minnesota Vikings
Los Angeles Rams
Denver Broncos
Atlanta Falcons
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
New England Patriots

Los Angeles Rams wins (under hypothetical scenario)

Minnesota Vikings
Buffalo Bills
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
New Orleans Saints
New York Jets
New England Patriots
Las Vegas Raiders

You might be inclined to calculate the total win percentage for Seattle and Los Angeles. This isn’t necessary. Focus only on the non-common opponents and that’s all that matters; think of it like simplifying a math equation by cancelling out equal numbers/variables.

Seahawks’ non-common opponent wins: Dolphins, Broncos, Falcons
Rams’ non-common opponent wins: Saints, Raiders, Bills

With an identical number of non-common opponent wins, calculating percentages is not required. Miami, Denver, and Atlanta have a combined 22 wins, whereas the Saints, Raiders, and Bills have only 18 wins. All the Seahawks need if for the Dolphins/Broncos/Falcons trio to be at least three games better over the remainder of the season...