Pride of Detroit
The Detroit Lions’ playoff chances were nearly cut in half over the course of past two days. The Lions’ Thanksgiving loss to the Green Bay Packers—in addition to the Cowboys and Bears winning—has shifted the course of Detroit’s playoff chase, and now they are big underdogs to make the postseason after entering the week with high probabilities to return to the dance.
Using the New York Times playoff simulator, Detroit entered the week with a 73% chance to make the playoffs. After the three worst possible outcomes of the week, the Lions’ chances now sit at just 32%—a 41% drop-off.
Let’s take a look at why, by looking at the latest NFC playoff picture standings.
The Lions are now two full games behind the Bears and a game-and-a-half behind the Packers. Detroit could theoretically still jump both, but it will require near perfection from them down the stretch. Helping them is a Week 18 matchup with the Bears that would not only help them make up a one-game difference, but it would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker over Chicago.
Only one problem: the Bears may actually be good. Yes, they still have a brutal schedule (Packers 2X, Browns, 49ers, Lions), but they have now won nine of their last 10 and just took down the Eagles in their own home.
Green Bay will also be hard to catch. While they, too, have a tough schedule (Bears 2X, Broncos, Ravens, Vikings), Detroit will have to beat them by two games over five weeks to catch them.
In other words, a third-straight divisional title is looking pretty unlikely. New York Times is putting their chances at just 4%.
Division leaders:
Wild Card race (top three advance)
*still has a Week 13 game left to play
Here’s the good news: there are only these six teams realistically fighting for three Wild Card spots. The two highest teams kept off the list—the 4-7 Falcons and Vikings—both have playoff odds currently at 1% or lower.
Here’s the bad news: They’re essentially two spots out of a playoff spot with five games to go. They need to catch one of the following four teams, who all essentially have a two-game lead over them.
They’re clearly two games behind the Bears. They’re 1.5 games behind the Packers, which is essentially the same thing as two games, because even if the Lions tie a game down the stretch, the Packers would have the head-to-head tiebreaker. They’re 1.5 games behind the Seahawks and likely to be two games behind after they play the Vikings this week.
The 49ers are a little...
