Dawgs By Nature
We here at Dawgs By Nature and all of the NFL draft community spend a lot of time focused on the first round of NFL drafts. With the Cleveland Browns having two picks in the first round of the 2026 NFL draft, it makes a little more sense, but we often hear from readers that the draft “is more than just the first round,” especially when we look at NFL mock drafts.
Indeed, it is, seven rounds to be exact.
The problem is, not all rounds are equal. In fact, success rates for NFL draft picks are relatively low overall, including Browns GM Andrew Berry, but fans often have higher expectations than history proves to be realistic.
Our friends at Daily Norseman have spent time over the years looking at the data in draft classes to come to this conclusion:
And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.
That means among the 260 or so drafted players each year, only about 2-3 will have Hall of Fame caliber careers, and only about 21 will be undisputedly good picks- and very good but not HoF caliber players.
Overall, only about two dozen players every draft will go on to have significant careers performing at a high level. That’s not a lot – less than one genuinely good player per team each year.
Alex Katson has his own data about finding a starter for the first four-plus seasons in the league. The drop off from the first to second round is big, after that it’s very hit or miss just for the rest of the rounds:
Katson is making the argument that finding a key special teams player, outside of kicker and punter, on Day 3 is a smart use of draft capital, given the low percentage of offensive and defensive starters found later in the NFL draft.
All in all, the whole of the 2026 NFL draft will matter, but the odds of many or any impactful players drop significantly after the first round and in the draft in totality.
Are you surprised by the numbers and data shown above? Does it help change your expectations for NFL draft classes moving forward?
Share your thoughts in our comment section below
