NFC West offseasons: Don’t buy the comeback for 49ers

Why a return to playoff contention may be easier said than done for 49ers

Both the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers are favored to take the NFC West crown in 2025, depending which sportsbook or analysts that you pay attention to. These are two of the only four teams to represent the NFC conference in the Super Bowl since 2018—the others being the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles.

I think it’s fool’s gold to expect San Francisco to bounce back from a disappointing 6-11 campaign. Let’s do a post-mortem on 2023 and dive into the moves they made this offseason.

What went wrong?

The 49ers were derailed by injuries last year. They ranked dead last in terms of adjusted games lost due to injuries, which is usually a sign the roster is due for positive regression after a year of bad luck. However—and we will get to this in a moment—San Francisco’s aging core seems prone to injury and betting on a return to form could very well be ill-advised.

For comparison, the Rams ranked first in adjusted games lost in 2023. They dropped to 23rd this past season and made the playoffs both years. In my view, this is a stat that is more helpful in terms of describing what went wrong versus prescribing what could happen the following year.

Key extensions:

Brock Purdy, QB

George Kittle, TE

Fred Warner, MLB

Free agent signings:

Luke Farrell, TE

Mac Jones, QB

Demarcus Robinson, WR

Tre Brown, CB

There’s no secret that the 49ers don’t have much spare money to spend in free agency, so it raises eyebrows when they sign a backup TE Luke Farrell to a three-year deal worth up to $20M. Could this be their version of the Rams’ deal with Colby Parkinson from last offseason?

Losses:

Deebo Samuel, WR (traded to Washington Commanders)

Dre Greenlaw, MLB (signed w/ Denver Broncos)

Talanoa Hufanga, DB (signed w/ Denver Broncos)

Javon Hargrave, DT (released, Minnesota Vikings)

Charvarius Ward, DB (signed w/ Indianapolis Colts)

Leonard Floyd, DE (released, Atlanta Falcons)

Maliek Collins, DT (released, Cleveland Browns)

Jaylon Moore, OT (signed w/ Kansas City Chiefs)

Elijah Mitchell, RB (signed w/ Kansas City Chiefs)

Jordan Mason, RB (traded to Minnesota Vikings)

Aaron Banks, G (signed w/ Green Bay Packers)

Drake Jackson, EDGE (released, failed physical)

Trent Williams has battled injuries in recent years. His back up, Jaylon Moore, earned a big-time payday from the Chiefs. The 49ers will have their fingers crossed that Williams doesn’t miss much time because they don’t have much depth behind the veteran currently.

Overall, this is a great deal of losses for a team that expects to bounce back in 2025. The pass rush takes a hit without Floyd and Jackson. The interior of the defensive line seems less formidable without former prized free agent Hargrave and Collins. Losing Greenlaw and...