Niners Nation
As improbable as it may seem, the San Francisco 49ers have an outside chance at obtaining the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. There’s roughly a 26 percent chance of the Niners winning the NFC West. One more slip-up from the Rams, and we can begin to have a serious conversation about both, so long as Kyle Shanahan and company continue their winning ways.
Let’s go through the postseason probabilities for the 49ers as they head into their bye week.
If the playoffs started today, the 49ers would play at SoFi Stadium, the Packers would head to Philadelphia, and Seattle would travel to Tampa Bay, while Chicago gets the No. 1 seed.
Thankfully, the playoffs do not start today, and the seedings are hardly worth mentioning as there will be an ungodly amount of shuffling from now until the final day of the regular season.
If you don’t believe me, the team currently ranked first in the NFC, the Chicago Bears, have a 76 percent chance of making the postseason, per ESPN’s FPI Index, while the seven-seeded 49ers have the third-highest odds in the NFL to make the playoffs. Football is fickle, and these projections account for each team’s schedule moving forward.
So, despite being in first place now, the Bears have the seventh-best odds of any NFC team to make the postseason. Here’s a look at the complete odds for the conference:
1) 49ers – 93.4%
2) Eagles – 92.6%
3) Rams 92.4%
4) Packers – 90.8%
5) Seahawks – 89.4%
6) Bucs – 79.5%
7) Bears – 76.3%
8) Lions – 44.1%
9) Panthers – 23.4%
10) Cowboys – 18.2%
The Cowboys are as hot as anybody, but still face the Lions, Vikings, Chargers, Rams, and Ravens. They need to be flawless to make it.
A hilarious outcome would be the 49ers winning the NFC West because the Rams and Seahawks lost to the Panthers. Carolina and Tampa Bay still play twice, which should decide that division.
Detroit has alternated wins and losses since Week 5. I think it’s over for the Lions, who still have to face the Cowboys, Rams, Steelers, Vikings, and Bears. If the Lions make the playoffs, it’ll be because they earned it.
The Bears are a year ahead of schedule. I’m expecting Green Bay to humble them, and the Lions to win in Week 18. The 49ers should also catch Chicago at the opportune time.
I’d be more worried about Klint Kubiak than Sam Darnold. Seattle’s defense is at a tier where Darnold is unlikely to be the one who has to win them a game.
Green Bay’s defense lost a starter this past week, but their quarterback play has been superb, and Micah Parsons makes them as dangerous as anybody.
The Rams feel like the team that runs through the regular season, and then everyone acts surprised when they lose in the playoffs despite the signs being there all along.
Nothing has told...
