NFC Playoff Picture: Projections have the 49ers close to a postseason lock

NFC Playoff Picture: Projections have the 49ers close to a postseason lock
Niners Nation Niners Nation

The San Francisco 49ers are entering a portion of their schedule where they can stack wins and gain separation from the other playoff contenders. Step one of that is complete after a blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.

Thanks to that victory and a loss by the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football, the Niners are back in the playoff race, after falling to the eight seed last week.

ESPN’s FPI projections have the 49ers finishing with 11 wins, with a 90 percent chance of making the postseason. There’s still a 19 percent chance to win the division, but that looks like a race for the Rams (62.3 percent projections to win the NFC West) to lose.

The Athletic is similarly bullish on the 49ers’ postseason hopes, giving them an 85 percent chance to make the playoffs, with the most likely opponent being Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. It’s looking like the NFC West will get three teams in. Let’s take a look at the current playoff standings in the conference.

NFC Playoff Picture

1) Philadelphia Eagles 8-2 (7-1)
2) Los Angeles Rams 8-2 (3-2)
3) Chicago Bears 7-3 (5-2)
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-4 (4-2)
5) Seattle Seahawks 7-3 (4-3)
6) Green Bay Packers 6-3-1 (4-2-1)
7) San Francisco 49ers 7-4 (7-2)
8) Detroit Lions 6-4 (3-3)

Another ugly win for the Eagles on Sunday night against a short-handed Lions squad on the road. Philadelphia has hardly been impressive, and I still refuse to believe a team that cannot throw the ball — Jalen Hurts was 3-for-10 at one point — is the best team in the conference. We’re not going to find out until they get bounced in the playoffs.

The Rams are likely the best team in the NFC, though they needed four interceptions from Sam Darnold to win a home game in which they didn’t score in the second or third quarters. A win is a win, but if anything, you’d be more impressed with Seattle’s resolve than the Rams finding a way to win.

I’m the old curmudgeon, get off my lawn, guy when it comes to the status of the NFC. You can easily poke holes in all of these teams. Perhaps none bigger than the team that won 19-17 over the Vikings despite throwing for fewer than 200 yards and scoring one touchdown. Chicago is the three seed today, but they play the Steelers, Eagles, Packers twice, 49ers, and Lions.

Seattle is a top-three team in the conference. They outgained the Rams 414 to 249 yards. They picked up 14 more first downs, but only converted 1 of 4 red zone attempts, and got the worst version of Sam Darnold. The Seahawks are not the team you want to play in the Wild Card round.

Nine drops for Jordan Love’s receivers in Week 11. No Tucker Kraft for the Packers, and it shows. Matt LaFleur running the ball on every first down like it’s 1980 doesn’t help, either. The...