My “rose colored glasses”, “glass half-full” preview of the Monday night Commanders-Chiefs matchup

Look around for yourself. Literally, any source that has discussion of the Monday Night Football game between the visiting Washington Commanders and the Kansas City Chiefs will tell you why the Chiefs are huge favorites, and why they should be.

Today, I’m going to talk about reasons for Commanders fans to look on this as a favorable matchup — or at least one in which Washington has a path to victory.

If your first impulse is to simply skip to the comments section and tell me why I’m “delusional”, save yourself the trouble of offering the least creative or insightful critique ever devised by sports social media. If you want to criticize the analysis or insult my intelligence, please put in some effort.

Let’s get the series history out of the way

The Commanders vs. Chiefs rivalry has been played 11 times, with the Washington Commanders winning 1 game and the Kansas City Chiefs winning 10 games.

The lone Washington win came in 1983, and Washington has never beaten the Chiefs in any of the 5 prior games played in Kansas City.

What this tells me is that the Commanders are overdue.

As you read the rest of the preview, it should become clear that Kansas City is vulnerable and Washington is primed for a season-altering victory.

This is the year to break the long-term series trends. This is the week for the upset victory that re-writes the current 2025 Commanders narrative.

Common Opponents

I’ve been reading all week about how Kansas City’s offense is ‘back’ to the explosive form that had been missing previously.

Kansas City began the ’25 season with an 0-2 start, and had a 2-3 record after 5 weeks; people were asking what was wrong with the Chiefs.

So, what is the basis for this burst of optimism across the NFL about the Chiefs offensive resurrection?

It’s primarily due to the 31-0 shellacking that KC laid on division rival Las Vegas Raiders in Week 7.

That would be the same LV Raiders that gave up 41 points to the Commanders (34 scored by the offense; 7 by special teams). As a reminder, Washington’s starting quarterback in that Raiders game was Marcus Mariota.

Chiefs on the left; Commanders on the right

In seven weeks of play, the Chiefs and Commanders have played three common opponents: the Chargers, Raiders, and Giants.

• both teams have played 2 home games
• The Commanders started a backup QB vs Raiders
• The Chiefs are 2-1 in these three games; the Commanders are a perfect 3-0
• Kansas City’s loss was at home, in Arrowhead Stadium
• Washington has out-scored Kansas City against these common opponents, 89 – 74
• Washington’s combined margins of victory (+47) compares favorably with that of the Chiefs (+38)
• The Commanders defense allowed an additional 2 points per game to be scored compared to the Chiefs

Against common opponents, Washington produced 20% more points and did not lose a game.

This should...