Windy City Gridiron
As a follow up to our previous installment of trade downs, we’ll take a look at what it would cost the Chicago Bears to trade up in the 2025 NFL Draft. With a lack of blue-chip talent at the top, it could be a “buyer’s market”.
The 2025 NFL Draft is exactly two weeks away, and the rumors surrounding the Top 10 are spinning. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. has already put out his final mock of the draft season, and many others will do the same over the next 14 days. As previously noted, the Chicago Bears find themselves in a tough spot when it comes to projecting what their options at No. 10 overall could look like on draft night.
In my previous installment, I mocked out three trade down scenarios that could be realistic for the Bears. With the current narrative of this draft, it’s safe to assume that no team trading back in the first round will receive full value. The reason why is quite simple: There’s a scarcity of blue-chip talent, and without a clear QB2 in this class, the value of each pick diminishes. How much? We will not truly know until Thursday night kicks off. Now that we are flipping the thought process into being aggressive, let’s dive deeper into what it would cost the Bears to trade up in each scenario from picks three through nine and who they might target with those picks.
Similar to my last experiment, we will operate under the assumption that the expected trade value received will sit around 85-90% of the total expected value from the Jimmy Johnson value chart. Not all of these will fall directly in line with that, but this will be the overall guideline I’ll use with each projected trade cost.
CHI trades No. 10 (1,300), No. 41 (490), and a 2026 3rd rounder (116) to NYG for No. 3 (2,200).
A few weeks ago, it would have felt safe to assume that the Giants were in line to take quarterback Shadeur Sanders at No. 3. Following the additions of Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson, it appears that New York’s current regime has gone into operation “Save My Job” mode. Because of that, it’s fair to question how much value someone like Abdul Carter has to them.
There’s an argument that he is the best player in this class, but the Giants already have both Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux on the edge. No team can ever have enough good pass rushers, but what if the Giants value adding more picks while still taking a talented player later in the draft? This assumes that Travis Hunter will go No. 2 overall to the Cleveland Browns, which is the current expectation.
For the Bears, this would be an opportunity to add a potentially elite edge rusher to their defense while not sacrificing too much in the present. Sure, having two...
