Behind the Steel Curtain
The Pittsburgh Steelers enter the final week of the regular season in a familiar position: overlooked by oddsmakers against the Ravens. Opening as 3.5-point underdogs according to multiple sportsbooks, including FanDuel, the Steelers once again find themselves counted out ahead of a high-stakes clash.
History suggests that may be a mistake.
Under head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh has thrived when expectations dip. Tomlin owns a remarkable 7–1 straight-up record against Baltimore when his team is labeled the underdog, a run that includes the Steelers’ 29–24 victory earlier this season. Far from coincidence, that success has evolved into a defining trait of Tomlin’s tenure: resilience when it matters most — at least in the regular season.
Unfortunately, when the Steelers are prohibitive favorites, they seem to find a way to lose – including last week’s abysmal showing against the Browns.
This meeting against Baltimore carries even greater weight. The rivals will square off in Week 18 with the AFC North on the line, raising the stakes on one of football’s most intense matchups.
Baltimore is poised to receive a boost with the expected return of star quarterback Lamar Jackson. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, anticipates having T.J. Watt available, though he may be on a limited snap count as he continues working back from a collapsed lung. The Steelers will also look for heightened production from their offensive weapons as they navigate key absences, as DK Metcalf is set to serve the final game of his suspension, and Darnell Washington hit injured reserve with a broken arm.
Traditionally, meetings between these two organizations render records meaningless — their rivalry defined more by grit, physicality, and razor-thin margins than standings. Yet Tomlin’s underdog dominance can no longer be dismissed as merely a quirk of history. It is a trend — one that looms large as the Steelers prepare for their biggest test of the season.
Once again, Pittsburgh is being doubted. Once again, Tomlin’s track record suggests that may be precisely when they seem to wake up.
