Mel Kiper’s Biggest QB Draft Hits and Misses Over the Last 10 Years

Every NFL Draft season, Mel Kiper Jr. delivers some of the most influential quarterback rankings in the industry.

His projections shape debates on sports talk shows, podcasts, and front office draft boards. But no matter how respected his evaluations are, the NFL Draft tells a different story.

Over the last ten years, the discrepancies between Kiper’s pre-draft QB rankings and the actual draft results have been impossible to ignore.

Some quarterbacks soared past expectations. Others, despite Kiper’s endorsement, plummeted on draft night.

Here’s a look at the biggest surprises over the last decade.

2025: Shedeur Sanders Slides

• Kiper’s QB1: Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
• Actual Draft: Round 5, Pick 144 (Cleveland Browns)

Mel Kiper had Sanders on top of his final quarterbacks board, but NFL teams did not agree. Sanders’ freefall into the fifth round stunned fans and analysts alike and became the headline of Day 3 of the draft.

https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1915789532785524958

Meanwhile, Kiper’s QB2, Cam Ward, went number one overall to the Tennessee Titans and hardly anyone noticed.

Biggest discrepancy: Sanders’ dramatic fall despite Kiper’s number one ranking.

2024: The Chalk Holds

• Kiper’s QB1: Caleb Williams, USC
• Actual Draft: Round 1, Pick 1 (Chicago Bears)
• Kiper’s QB3: Jayden Daniels, LSU
• Actual Draft: Round 1, Pick 2 (Washington Commanders)

In 2024, Kiper’s rankings largely mirrored the draft board. Williams, Daniels, and Drak Maye (Kiper’s QB2) all went top three.

https://twitter.com/WamNFL/status/1749529497836122252

Biggest takeaway: Minimal deviation among top quarterbacks

2023: The Will Levis Slide

• Kiper’s QB3: Will Levis, Kentucky
• Actual Draft: Round 2, Pick 133 (Tennessee Titans)

Levis was a polarizing figure throughout the pre-draft process.

While Kiper slotted him firmly into his top three, NFL teams balked, and Levis endured an uncomfortable first-round snub before finding a home early on Day 2.

https://twitter.com/MelKiperESPN/status/1616217193829617665

Biggest discrepancy: First-round grade vs. second-round reality

2022: The Malik Willis Mystery

• Kiper’s QB1: Malik Willis, Liberty
• Actual Draft: Round 3, Pick 86 (Tennessee Titans)

The 2022 class was a quarterback desert, and teams showed it on draft night.

Despite Kiper’s praise, Willis fell to the third round, as did fellow prospects Matt Corral and Desmond Ridder. Only Kenny Pickett (Kiper’s QB2) cracked the first round.

https://twitter.com/ESPNPlus/status/1443688005634596864

Biggest discrepancy: An entire class was devalued compared to Kiper’s expectations.

2021: Five in the First

• Kiper’s QB1: Trevor Lawrence
• Actual Draft: Round 1, Pick 1 (Jacksonville Jaguars)
• Kiper’s QB2-5: Justin Fields (2), Zach Wilson (3), Mac Jones (4), Trey Lance (5)
• Actual Draft: Wilson (P2 NYJ), Trey Lance (P3 SF), Fields (P11 CHI), Jones (P15 NE)

Kiper’s big board aligned almost perfectly with how the NFL drafted. All five quarterbacks went in the first round.

Biggest takeaway: A rare year when Mel Kiper Jr. got the round quarterbacks were taken correctly.

2020: Eason Overhyped

• Kiper’s QB4: Jacob Eason, Washington
• Actual draft: Round 4, Pick 122 (Indianapolis Colts)

Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert all lived up to their lofty draft...