Turf Show Times
For the first time in his career, Matthew Stafford is set to lead the NFL in a major stat category, the type that typically gets a quarterback named MVP, if not several. Stafford is the leader in touchdowns (30) and passer rating (113.7) with six games to go and he Rams in first place in the NFC. At a time when so many fans around the league are clamoring for their teams to get a high draft pick so they can draft a quarterback — despite almost none of them being successful over the past 5 years and beyond — it’s the 37-year-old with a bad back lapping the field not in spite of his age but because of his experience.
Stafford’s 30 touchdown passes through 11 games is tied for the 11th-most in history with a list of Hall of Fame quarterbacks:
Of the 10 times a QB had more than 30 touchdowns through 11 games, Peyton Manning did it three times (including a record 41 in 2004), Rodgers did it twice, plus Brady, Mahomes, Andrew Luck, Brees, and Russell Wilson.
Of the 15 other seasons with at least 30 touchdowns through 11 games, Rodgers won MVP all three times, Manning won MVP twice, while Brady, Mahomes, and Marino all won MVP once. Brees was the 2016 Offensive Player of the Year.
If Stafford throws 12 touchdowns per game over the rest of the season, he will finish with a career-high 42. If he averages 3 touchdowns per game, he will finish with 45. That number has only been reached eight times and Brees is the only one of those to not win MVP. Brees lost that season to Rodgers, who had 45 touchdowns/6 interceptions.
Stafford’s 30 touchdowns is seven more touchdowns than second place, a tie between Dak Prescott and Jared Goff. That gives Stafford a TD% “adjusted mark” of 140, which basically means he has 140% more touchdown passes than the average QB. Or something, you get it. The average is 100 and Stafford has 140 on a TD%.
Way, way above average.
-When Manning set the record with 55 touchdown passes in 2013, his TD% adjusted mark was 145. Not that much higher than Stafford’s now. (Manning’s career-best was an insane 168 in 2004.)
-When Marino threw 48 touchdowns in 1984, his TD% adjusted mark was 148.
-Even Brady only had one season over 135 in his career, which was the 2007 season (153).
In other words, it’s not only impressive that Stafford has 30 touchdowns. It’s impressive at a time when his competition isn’t doing nearly as good as he is doing.
Although we’ve now seen that a handful of QBs have had 30 touchdowns through 11 games, not many of them had 2 interceptions at the time.
These are the quarterbacks...
