Turf Show Times
The late season decline of the Los Angeles Rams can be primarily explained by two recent developments:
If you want to read more about the Rams’ tackling woes, I’ve written about it often and you can find it here, here, and here.
The aspect of the Rams’ decline that I haven’t talked about enough recently is the statistical regression of Stafford. The veteran’s start to the season defied all odds. He’s now into his late 30’s and missed all of training camp and the preseason with a back injury. The team itself wasn’t even sure he’d be able to suit up in time for the season. In the face of adversity, Stafford emerged on the other side playing the best football of his entire career.
But we should have known it wouldn’t last, or at least we should have been much more cautiously optimistic.
When a player performs better than he has at any points over the last 17 years, the smart bet is against the trend continuing. Stafford is an aggressive quarterback. He started the season on a historic TD-INT ratio (a bad measure of passing performance but still impressive nonetheless) despite putting the ball in harm’s way at a relatively high clip over the rest of his career.
Stafford’s season-high mark for Pro Football Focus (PFF)‘s turnover-worthy plays is three. He’s hit that threshold in two games, both of which came late in the season in Week 17 (Falcons) and Week 15 (Lions). We don’t usually think of the Detroit game as a bad performance for Stafford as he threw only one interception. The box score can lie to us. In both games Stafford finished with a turnover-worthy play rate of 6.8%.
On a percentage basis, there are two more games in the same ballpark in terms of potential turnovers. In both Week 13 against the Panthers and Week 6 versus the Ravens, the quarterback had a TWP rate of 6.7%. While Stafford only had two TWP’s in each of these games, he dropped back to pass at least 10 less plays compared to the two games where he had three.
In other words, three of the worst games for Stafford putting the ball in harm’s way came in recent weeks. Since the Week 13 loss to Carolina (the start of this stretch), the Rams have a measly 2-3 record.
As I mentioned before, I am not saying the recent change in win/loss record is entirely on Stafford. The defense has also taken a step back and this is another key driver in the team’s decline. However, the oldest adage in football is that the turnover battle decides outcomes. The Rams aren’t winning this game within a game of late.
This development might be the single-most...
