Looking ahead: Margin of error for playoffs slim, but opportunity for late push is great

The Colts face perhaps their toughest challenge of the season today vs the Lions, but irregardless of the result today, the chance for a playoff push remains... if the Colts can take care of business against the bottom of the NFL.

The Colts by around 4:15pm today will be 5-7 or 6-6 (after a monumental upset victory hopefully) and likely on the outside looking in of the playoffs if the season ended today. Irregardless of the games’ outcome, the Colts are on the cusp of making the playoffs for the first time since 2020.

With 5 games left and a bye week remaining on the schedule, what can the Colts do to close the gap for a playoff spot, and which teams could be most at risk for losing their spot to the Colts?

AFC Playoff Picture:

1. Kansas City Chiefs | 9-1
2. Buffalo Bills | 9-2
3. Pittsburgh Steelers | 8-3
4. Houston Texans | 7-4
5. LA Chargers | 7-3
6. Baltimore Ravens | 7-4
7. Denver Broncos | 6-5
8. Indianapolis Colts | 5-6
9. Miami Dolphins | 4-6
10. Cincinnati Bengals | 4-7

Remaining Schedule:

• Week 13: @ Patriots | 3-8
• Week 14: BYE
• Week 15: @ Broncos | 6-5
• Week 16: vs Titans | 2-8
• Week 17: @ Giants | 2-8
• Week 18: vs Jaguars | 2-9

Since the NFL adopted the 14 team playoff structure instead of the prior 12, every 10 Win team in the NFL has made the playoffs. 10 is the magic number of wins for a near guarantee of a playoff berth (>99% chance per New York Times Playoff Machine), which means if the Colts lose to the Lions today, they need a clean sweep of their remaining schedule to earn that 10 win playoff guarantee.

Is a clean sweep feasible? With 4 games against 2-3 win teams that are looking towards the NFL draft rather than playoff aspirations at this point in the season, it is certainly possible. The Colts cannot to afford to overlook any of these teams, especially their division rivals the Titans (who the Colts beat by 3 earlier in the year) and the Jaguars (who the Colts lost to by 3 in Jacksonville earlier this season).

The most important game for the Colts playoff aspirations by far is against the Broncos. If the Colts lose any other game instead to drop to 9-8 by the end of the year, their playoff odds drop down to 75-80%, a still likely playoff berth. If the Colts only lose to the Broncos, their playoff odds plummet to 40%. The impact of a 2 win swing in record between two teams fighting for a final spot and losing the head to head tiebreaker is immense. While not a death sentence to the playoff hopes, the Colts would certainly need outside help to sneak into the playoffs through that path.

The Broncos also have a tough path to the playoffs in...