Pride of Detroit
The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers face off on Thursday in one of the bigger Thanksgiving Day classics in this franchise’s history. With a tight race both in the division and conference, this could be a game we look back on as the difference between a third-straight NFC North crown and missing the playoffs entirely.
Which team has the statistical advantage heading into Thursday afternoon? Let’s take a look and make a prediction in our Week 12 On Paper preview and prediction for Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers.
The Detroit Lions’ passing offense is still mostly good, but they’ve encountered some recent inconsistencies. It’s too early to say how much the loss of Sam LaPorta has impacted this unit, but the early returns certainly aren’t great. Still, for the season, this is a good—probably not great—passing attack. Here are some key rankings:
Pass protection continues to be a mixed bag. They rank 15th in sack percentage and 16th in pressure percentage. While PFF gives the team an overall pass blocking grade of 61.7 (22nd) and ESPN’s pass block win rate of 56% ranks 28th.
They key for the Lions offense will be to stay out of third-and-longs. Detroit ranks just 29th in converting third-and-8+ (17.2%), while the Packers defense is sixth-best in those situations (17.7% conversion rate).
Speaking of Green Bay’s defense, it’s one of the best in the league this year. They have a pretty darn impressive mixture of pressure and coverage. They’re tied for 10th in sacks, despite having the second-lowest blitz rate (20.0%). And they sport PFF’s second-best coverage grade in the NFL. As an entire unit, they rank:
The interesting part of this matchup is that the Packers allow what the Lions like to do: short-yardage passing. Green Bay almost never gives up big plays (only seven passing plays of 30+ yards), but the Lions also have been rarely testing defenses deep (31st in passing attempts of 20+ air yards). Instead, the Packers dare offense to throw it underneath and get YAC. Well, that’s exactly what the Lions do. They rank second in the NFL in YAC, and on short passes they rank third in EPA/pass, third in yards per play, and Jared Goff ranks second in passer rating (102.6).
Player to watch: Micah Parsons. He’s a game changer, and unfortunately for the Lions, he’s a danger along the entire line. Take, for example, this ridiculous pass rush rep, where Parsons is right over the center.
Now imagine the Lions interior offensive line going against that, possibly without center Graham Glasgow.
Advantage: Packers +1. Admittedly, this one could go either way, but...
