Pride of Detroit
The Detroit Lions are following up one of the most disappointing losses in recent memory with a rematch of one of the most heartbreaking playoff defeats in franchise history. Many fans have spent the week in a bit of a tailspin, and while the rematch has lost some bite following the devastating injury to second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels, it still offers a chance for a get-right game.
Detroit has dropped two of its last three and looks as vulnerable as it did late in 2023, when it lost to the Packers and Bears in a three-week span—nearly collapsing against the Saints in between those two losses. But after that stretch, the Lions rebounded in a big way, blasting the Broncos 42-17 on Saturday night before rolling through the postseason to the NFC Championship Game. Dan Campbell has proven time and again that when he says something is fixable, he genuinely means it.
With Marcus Mariota and a struggling Dan Quinn defense now up next—plus a Commanders team that isn’t in peak health, this game presents an opportunity to reestablish rhythm and remind everyone why Detroit belongs in the championship conversation.
With the Lions’ offense under scrutiny—and the Commanders missing Daniels and top receiver Terry McLaurin—this preview breaks down three key statistical matchups, focusing on Detroit’s offense versus Washington’s defense, that could determine whether the Lions can get back on track and reaffirm their place among the NFC’s contenders.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference and exclude garbage time.
Second-and-long lost Lions
The Lions’ offense has been under the microscope for its recent struggles, with every imaginable situation dissected. One area that’s drawn particular scrutiny: their second-and-long (second-and-7+) inefficiency.
Detroit leads the NFL in run rate on those downs (44.7%), but the problem is their lack of effectiveness on the ground. On 42 rushing attempts in those situations, the Lions have managed just a 28.6% rushing success rate (29th)— steep drop from 50.5% (4th) last season.
The issues extend beyond the run game. Here’s how the Lions rank overall on second-and-long this season:
When Detroit fails on first down, drives often unravel before they start. Sustaining possessions and producing points becomes nearly impossible—as evidenced in Week 9 against Minnesota, when the Lions went three-and-out on four consecutive drives.
Fortunately, their Week 10 opponent presents an opportunity to get back on track.
Dan Quinn’s Commanders defense—now missing key contributors like Dorrance Armstrong, Deatrich Wise Jr., former Lion Wil Harris, and most recently Marshon Lattimore Jr.—has regressed from last year’s middle-of-the-pack standard. Even rising players like Mike Sainristil have taken a step back. That’s particularly evident on second-and-long.
Washington’s defense on second-and-long this season:
