Pride of Detroit
Sunday features a double-digit spread match-up against two teams heading in polar opposite directions. The Cincinnati Bengals have lost two in a row, both without franchise player Joe Burrow, while the Detroit Lions are in the midst of a three-game winning wave.
Cincinnati’s struggles have been glaring—the Burrow-less Bengals have lost their last two games by an average of 31.5 points. Historically, though, it’s been the Bengals who have ruled this series, taking 10 of the last 11 meetings and seven straight by an average margin of 11 points. Detroit’s last win came way back in 1992.
But if there’s ever a time for history to flip, it’s now. The Bengals are limping in, while the Lions look every bit like the Kings of the Jungle, ready to maul an opponent that suddenly feels vulnerable.
Detroit’s high-powered offense will test a Bengals defense that has regressed under new coordinator Al Golden, slipping from 25.5 points allowed per game to 29.8. They’ll be backed by Kelvin Sheppard’s surging defense, though the Lions will be without their top corner, D.J. Reed.
Let’s dig into three key numbers that could decide whether this matchup stays competitive.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference.
Cut to the Chase
Bengals All-Pro wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase and quarterback Jake Browning haven’t exactly been in sync through Browning’s first two starts. Chase managed 50 yards on five catches against the Vikings in Week 3 and only 23 yards on five catches against the Broncos—both top-12 defenses in passing DVOA (Minnesota #1). Their lone spark came back in Week 2, when Chase posted 10 catches for 128 yards after Browning relieved Joe Burrow midgame. Still, across Browning’s seven starts in 2023, the duo produced just one 100-yard game. Neutralizing that connection will be pivotal for Detroit.
One dial Kelvin Sheppard has turned differently from past Lions’ defenses is a heavier reliance on zone coverage. Last season, Detroit played zone on just 54.6% of snaps (32nd), leading the NFL in man coverage rate. This year, they’ve shifted to 60.4% zone (27th), while climbing into the top 20 in usage of Cover 2 and Cover 3.
The results in zone have been a mixed bag:
So while Sheppard’s unit has been able to get home—sacks on 12.2% of dropbacks, second-best in the league—the Lions have still been burned too often given the contrasting statistics aside from success rate.
That makes Chase a particularly dangerous challenge. Against zone this season, he’s been lethal: 23 receptions (2nd among WRs), 253 yards (5th), 11 first downs (5th), plus two drawn DPIs (t-1st). By contrast, against man coverage he has just three catches for 11 yards and a...
