Pride of Detroit
A statistical breakdown and score prediction for Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears in Week 16.
The Detroit Lions look to get back on track after dropping just their second game of the season last week against the Buffalo Bills. The Lions have not lost two games in a row since their 1-6 start to the 2022 season, and this week they face off against the Chicago Bears team that is on an eight-game losing streak. Should be easy, right?
Not so fast, my friend. Divisional road games are always tough, and there are some statistics that suggest this could be closer than expected.
Let’s get into it in our Week 16 On Paper preview and prediction: Lions vs. Bears.
The Lions’ passing attack has been their most consistent unit all season. Jared Goff is in the middle of his best career season—yes, even better than his Super Bowl run with the Rams. The following statistics are career highs for Goff right now:
As an entire unit, the Lions look better than their DVOA ranking may suggest. They’re top-three in yards per attempt, passer rating, dropback EPA, and success rate.
The only thing that is slightly trailing behind is pass protection. Despite a highly-praised unit, the team ranks just 12th in pass block win rate, 17th in PFF pass blocking grade, and 17th in pressure rate. Goff gets the ball out relatively quickly (15th in time to throw), so the sack rate is still 10th best in the NFL.
That said, we’ll see how healthy the Lions offensive line is this week. Frank Ragnow (back) and Graham Glasgow (knee) have missed the first two practices this week, and while Glasgow has struggled anyways (33 pressures allowed is fourth among all guards), missing Ragnow would be critically bad.
[Editor’s note: Prior to the game against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4, the last game Frank Ragnow missed was that Week 14 game against the Bears in Chicago. You’ve blocked it out of your brain for a reason.]
The Bears pass defense is typically the strength of this team, but you can see they haven’t quite been themselves over the past month or two. Just three weeks ago, this unit was ranked 10th in DVOA, and they’ve already dropped to 14th just based on the Lions, 49ers, and Vikings games.
This has all been a larger trend of the Bears defense falling off a cliff since firing defensive-minded head coach Matt Eberflus. Check out these stats, via Courtney Cronin of ESPN:
Since Week 7:
