Lions playoff chances: Is Detroit still the favorite to win NFC North?

The Detroit Lions may still be reeling after losing on Sunday Night Football. Detroit melted down against Philadelphia, going 0-for-5 on fourth-down attempts and stalling out on offense. But beyond the emotional damage of such a defeat, the Lions now find themselves in unfamiliar territory.

Detroit is now 6-4 heading into Week 12 and, believe it or not, would not qualify for the playoffs if the postseason started today. They are on the outside looking in as the No. 8 team in the NFC.

But the Lions aren’t in this position purely because of their own ineptitude. The Bears (7-3) and Packers (6-3-1) have only narrow advantages over the Lions, and the 49ers are an incredibly strong seventh seed at 7-4.

Detroit needs to focus on taking care of Green Bay and Chicago if they want to make the playoffs for a third consecutive season.

But will the Lions be able to make it happen? And what will it take to make the playoffs in a competitive NFC?

Below we will explore Detroit’s playoff probabilities and what it would take for them to win the NFC North again in 2025.

Detroit’s current playoff odds heading into Week 12

So how long are the odds heading into Week 12?

Conveniently, NFL.com’s Ali Bhanpuri published an article on Wednesday detailing the playoff probabilities for each NFL team in Week 12. Not only that, Bhanpuri’s article also includes how a win or loss will impact each team’s odds.

Detroit currently has a 74% chance to make the playoffs according to the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model. That can go up to 80% with a win against the Giants, or drop to 56% if the Lions lose.

So ultimately, they’re in good shape.

But the Bears and Packers are in good position too.

Chicago has a 59% chance of making the playoffs, which could go up to 69% with a win or drop to 45% with a loss. Their odds reflect the idea that, despite leading the NFC North, they likely won’t hold that position for long.

Meanwhile, Green Bay has a 73% chance of making the playoffs, which could go up to 81% or down to 57%. Very similar to Detroit.

The path back to the playoff picture for the Lions

Detroit has a fairly clear path to getting into the playoffs. They simply need to take care of business and get a couple of important wins.

Here is the Lions’ remaining schedule for the season:

• Week 12 vs. Giants
• Week 13 vs. Packers (Thanksgiving)
• Week 14 vs. Cowboys (Thursday Night Football)
• Week 15 at Rams
• Week 16 vs. Steelers
• Week 17 at Vikings
• Week 18 at Bears

The Lions have a somewhat favorable schedule down the back stretch of the regular season.

A handful of somewhat easy games (Giants, Cowboys, Steelers) could supply the Lions with some easy W’s. But from there, the Lions simply need to find a way to win...