Just how improbable was Bears QB Caleb Williams’ 2nd TD to DJ Moore?

Just how improbable was Bears QB Caleb Williams’ 2nd TD to DJ Moore?
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The Chicago Bears bounced back in a big way in Week 15, taking down the Cleveland Browns 31-3. In the win, quarterback Caleb Williams had a pair of touchdown passes.

Both of them went to wide receiver DJ Moore. But the pair’s second connection was unlike anything Chicago fans have seen in a while. Williams’ touchdown pass had a 16.1 percent chance of success, the most improbable completion by a Bears quarterback since 2021, via Next Gen Stats.

Caleb Williams' 22-yard TD pass to DJ Moore had a completion probability of 16.1%, the most improbable completion by a @ChicagoBears QB over the last five seasons (since 2021).

QB Speed: 11.62 mph
Target Separation: 0.7 yards#CLEvsCHI | #DaBearspic.twitter.com/ScSnMSigJ3

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 14, 2025

The touchdown pass put the Bears up 21-3, which was essentially the final nail in the coffin at that point. Chicago had intercepted Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders a play prior. Chicago would go on to force three interceptions, limiting Sanders to 177 passing yards. The Browns as a whole gained 192 yards of total offense.

The Bears managed to put up 361, with Williams completing 17-of-28 passes for 242 yards and two touchdowns. Running back D’Andre Swift added another 98 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

As for Moore, the wide receiver hasn’t been as much of a focal point in the offense in head coach Ben Johnson’s first year at the helm. He got a larger opportunity with Rome Odunze being forced to miss the game with a foot injury. Now, Moore has caught 39 passes for 498 yards and three touchdowns.

Now 10-4, the Bears are marching towards the playoffs. They have a crucial rematch against the Green Bay Packers on tap for Week 16. If Williams and Moore carry their strong play over from Week 15, the Bears will poise a much more difficult challenge.

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