Stampede Blue
Josh Downs has established himself as a great option on third down and the best one on the Colts.
One big reason Josh Downs looks so good on money downs is that the Colts’ offense keeps third down manageable. Indy is sitting near the top of the league in third-down conversion rate, and team pieces have even highlighted that the Colts face the shortest average third down in the NFL — about 5.3 yards to go. That’s a massive advantage for a quick, separation-based slot like Downs. When you only need five or six yards, you don’t need a contested sideline ball; you need someone who can win cleanly in the middle of the field and present on time. That’s exactly how Shane Steichen/Jim Bob Cooter have the offense set up right now.
The numbers people around the Colts have already started calling him a “first-down machine,” and they’re not exaggerating. Through the early part of the season he was at roughly a 74% catch rate, no drops, and about 60% of his catches were moving the chains — and, most telling, he’d converted 8 of his first 11 third- and fourth-down targets. That’s the profile of a receiver the QB trusts and the staff is dialing up in gotta-have-it spots. Even though his total line (36/316/3) doesn’t scream WR1, the situational value absolutely does.
Here’s a look at how Downs performs on various third- and fourth-down distances so far this season
Downs is in the slot around 70% of the time, which means he gets two-way goes and cleaner releases than the outside guys. On third-and-medium, the Colts can push verticals with Pittman and Pierce and let Downs sit or break into the space those routes create. His route tree in this offense is very “third-down friendly”: option routes, sticks, little choice routes, quick outs — all between the numbers and usually inside 10 yards. Then layer on Daniel Jones playing on schedule in this system and preferring the quick, on-time throw, and Downs becomes the natural answer: he wins the fastest, and the QB is throwing the fastest. That’s why so many of his catches are right at or just past the sticks.
What makes Josh Downs an elite situational weapon isn’t his raw volume or highlight reel catches — it’s his precision, reliability and timing in high-leverage moments. In a drive system where the Colts often need just five or six yards on third down, Downs isn’t competing for deep rope-throws. He’s winning alignment, beating leverage, securing the catch and moving the chains.
That kind of consistency doesn’t always show up in traditional box-score stats, but it matters just as much — if not more — when you’re looking at sustained drives, fewer punts, more red-zone visits and a steadier offense. With the Colts leaning into shorter third-downs, a quarterback who throws on-schedule and a slot receiver who specializes in that micro-gap space, Downs has become the invisible engine that keeps the offense humming.
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