Josh Allen’s NFL MVP campaign: Revisiting chances after 11 weeks

What will it take for Josh Allen win the Associated Press NFL MVP in 2024?

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen entered the 2024 NFL season with the third-highest odds to win NFL MVP. In an MVP preview article earlier this year, I outlined “10 Must Happen Scenarios” for Allen to win his first MVP.

Now the Bills are 9-2 and have a commanding lead of the AFC East as they head into their Week 13 game against the San Francisco 49ers. As we approach the home stretch of the regular season, it’s time to assess Allen’s current MVP chances.

Below, I’ll evaluate Allen’s current stats, review the top MVP candidates and their stats, revisit those “must-happen” scenarios, and outline what needs to happen for Allen to take home the NFL’s 2024 MVP.

What are Josh Allen’s 2024 stats?

Passing:

• 2543 passing yards (14th) — on pace for 3,930
• 231.2 passing yards per game (16th)
• 18 passing TDs (tied for 6th) — on pace for 28
• 5 interceptions — on pace for 8
• 64% completion percentage (24th)
• 98.2 passer rating (10th)
• +0.18 EPA/Dropback (4th)

Rushing:

• 316 rushing yards (7th among QBs) — on pace for 488
• 5 rushing TDs (tied for 2nd among QBs) — on pace for 8

Defining Moments:

• Game-sealing touchdown run on 4th & 2 in a win over Kansas City Chiefs
• Dominant wins over the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars in primetime games in Weeks 2 and 3
• AFC Offensive Player of the Week in Week 3
• AFC Offensive Player of the Month for September
• A bad loss to the Baltimore Ravens in a primetime game

How does Josh Allen stack up against 2024 NFL MVP Favorites?

Current MVP Odds according to FanDuel Sportsbook:

• Josh Allen +150
• Lamar Jackson +250
• Saquon Barkley +700
• Jared Goff +700

Lamar Jackson Stats (12 games played)

Passing:

• 3,053 passing yards (1st) — on pace for 4,325
• 254.4 passing yards per game (7th)
• 27 passing TDs (tied for 1st) — on pace for 38
• 3 interceptions — on pace for 4
• 67.3% completion percentage (12th)
• 117.9 passer rating (1st — by a large margin)
• +0.29 EPA/dropback (1st)

Rushing:

• 599 rushing yards (1st among QBs) — on pace for 849
• 3 rushing TDs (tied for 8th among QBs) — on pace for 4

Saquon Barkley (11 games played)

Rushing:

• 1392 rushing yards (1st)
• 126.5 rushing yards per game (1st)
• 10 rushing TDs (tied for 3rd among RBs)
• 6.2 yards per carry (1st)
• +2.0 rushing yards over expected/attempt (tied for 1st)
• +1.9 Rushing EPA/Game (3rd among RBs)

Receiving:

• 257 receiving yards (13th among RBs)
• 27 receptions
• 2 receiving TDs

Jared Goff Stats (11 games played)

Passing:

• 2,761 passing yards (8th) — **on pace for...