Acme Packing Company
Opportunity cost is a real problem for football teams, especially ones built like the Packers.
In the Jordan Love era, the Packers have never really been short of offensive talent. Sure, it’s often been a challenge to have all of that talent on the field together, but in the aggregate, it’s never been an issue.
But that’s its own kind of problem. The Packers have frequently had so many decent options that they’ve lacked overall coherence; they’ve bordered on having too many cooks in the kitchen.
The Packers themselves have tacitly admitted this was an issue this offseason, trimming their wide receiver room by allowing Romeo Doubs to leave in free agency and shipping Dontayvion Wicks off via trade. Gone are the days of a fleet of would-be number one wide receivers. Now it’s a more focused, and hopefully more successful group.
But that’s where the opportunity cost arises, at least potentially. Because over the past few years, the Packers have been one of the more run-focused teams in the NFL.
According to rbsdm.com, the Packers have been more reliant on runs in neutral situations than almost any team in the league over the past few years. In those analytically neutral situations (in short, when the game is close and neither team is running or passing more heavily for tactical reasons, like being way behind or far ahead), the Packers have increasingly leaned on the run. In the past three years, they’ve ranked 20th, 32nd, and 22nd in early down, neutral situation pass calls.
As much as the Matt LaFleur offense is supposed to be run-oriented, I still find this odd for a few reasons. First, Jordan Love is good. This is analytically well-supported and well-documented, and running the ball is a huge opportunity cost because it deprives Jordan Love of chances to do the good things he is good at doing.
But second, it seems odd because of how the Packers have built their own team. Dating back to 2022, the Packers have spent tons of resources on pass catchers, burning seven top 100 picks on wide receivers or tight ends (counting the two they spent in the trade up for Christian Watson), in addition to drafting four other receivers in the fourth round or later. Yet they regularly park those players in the metaphorical garage, leaving the offense to grind out gains on the ground rather than attacking through the air. And it’s not because they think these players are bad; they just offered contract extensions to two of them this offseason.
Why do it this way? Only Matt LaFleur knows the answer, but it seems to be because in addition to spending resources on wide receivers, the Packers have also spent fairly lavishly on running backs of late. Well, one back in particular.
The Packers signed Josh Jacobs to a rich free agent contract in the spring of 2024, seemingly just as Aaron Jones was headed out the door. (What a fun few minutes it was when...
