Jaguars, Texans Re-watch: 10 Observations from Week 3

After dropping a heartbreaker in Cincinnati in week two, the Jacksonville Jaguars defense drew a teal line in the sand in week three, taking victory by the horns via three redzone turnovers from the Houston Texans. After providing the live takeaways and lingering questions from this week’s game, we take a closer review of the matchup after evaluating the televised gameplay. As a note, this review is based on the non-all-22 film, while being published before the PFF grades are released (in an effort to remain truly uninfluenced and unbiased on what we see). Additionally, this style of review knowingly places some limitations on evaluating secondary play without confirming the full coverage looks. With that said, let’s get into some takeaways from the Jaguars’ 17-10 victory over the now 0-3 Houston Texans.

*Any opinions noted are those of Travis and not of the entire BCC staff or leadership. Of course, anyone can disagree when evaluating film. Any noted EPA, Success Rate, or other data was retrieved from rbsdm.com. Additional data provided by NFL Pro and NextGenStats.

Glossary:

• EPA = expected points added (statistical metric used in football analytics to measure how well a team performs relative to expectation on an individual play, based on factors like field position, down and distance, and time remaining to quantify how many points a team is expected to score on a drive)
• SR = success rate (percent of plays with positive EPA)
• 1st% = percent of plays that earned first downs
• CPOE = completion percentage over expected
• ADoT = average depth of target
  • ADoT and CMP% may not match official statistics due to excluding spikes & throwaways

Offense:

1. Quarterback Play Evaluation

• -0.12 EPA per play falls within the 26th percentile of all QBs between 2010 and 2020 with minimum 5 plays per game
• A total EPA of -5.4 falls in the 23rd percentile on 45 plays
• 8.4 average depth of target (ADOT) is in the 52nd percentile
• 52.6 Completion percentage (CMP%)
• -17% completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is in the 4th percentile
• 38% Success Rate
• 27% First Down Percentage
• 56.5 Passer Rating

In week three, Lawrence had the NFL’s eighth-fastest time to throw (TTT) of 2.57 seconds, just slower than CJ Stroud’s fifth-fastest 2.53 seconds on Sunday. Trevor’s 56.5 passer rating is 27th of the 30 quarterbacks to play prior to Monday Night Football, ahead of only Joe Flacco, Michael Penix Jr, and Russell Wilson.

Lawrence completed just 2 of 11 passes over 10 air yards for 62 yards and an interception in Week 3, per NFL Pro.

His lone downfield highlight was the key 46-yard catch and run to Brian Thomas Jr. in the fourth quarter that set up the game-winning touchdown. Lawrence was more efficient on shorter throws, completing 18 of 27 passes under 10 air yards for 160 yards, while going 0-for-4 on attempts of 20+ air yards.

Lawrence’s day started off strong with a...