Jaguars, Panthers Re-watch: Observations from Week 1

After providing the live takeaways and lingering questions from this week’s’ game, we take a quick review of the matchup after evaluating the televised gameplay from the Jaguars EverBank Stadium home opener.

As a note, this review is based on the non-all-22 film, while being published before the PFF grades are released (in an effort to remain truly uninfluenced and unbiased on what we see). Additionally, this style of review knowingly places some limitations on evaluating secondary play without confirming the full coverage looks. With that said, let’s get into some takeaways from the Jaguars’ 26-10 victory over the Carolina Panthers.

*Any opinions noted are those of Travis and not of the entire BCC staff or leadership. Of course, anyone can disagree when evaluating film. Any noted EPA, Success Rate, or other data was retrieved from rbsdm.com. Additional data provided by NFL Pro and NextGenStats.

Glossary:

• EPA = expected points added (statistical metric used in football analytics to measure how well a team performs relative to expectation on an individual play, based on factors like field position, down and distance, and time remaining to quantify how many points a team is expected to score on a drive)
• SR = success rate (percent of plays with positive EPA)
• 1st% = percent of plays that earned first downs
• CPOE = completion percentage over expected
• ADoT = average depth of target
• ADoT and CMP% may not match official statistics due to excluding spikes & throwaways

Offense:

1. Quarterback Play Evaluation

On 33 plays, QB Trevor Lawrence had:

• 0.07 EPA per play falls within the 50th percentile of all QBs between 2010 and 2020 with minimum 5 plays per game
• A total EPA of 2.3 is in the 49th percentile (just below median)
• 7.9 average depth of target (ADOT) is in the 43rd percentile (below median)
• -4.1 completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is in the 32nd percentile (below median)
• 48% Success Rate (percent of plays with positive EPA)
• 33% First Down Percentage (percent of plays that earned first downs)
• 74.4 QB rating

In whole, this is one of those rare games where the advanced statistics pretty accurately match the play on tape. Lawrence began his day with an efficient first half, taking what the defense gave them while also capitalizing on the early defensive turnover. At the half, one might even say he played great ball control, game manager football by not placing the football in harm’s way, keeping the offense on schedule with four scoring drives on five attempts. When the routes weren’t there, he scrambled (twice) to quickly what was available to move on to the next play. Outside of his first drive, first down intentional grounding penalty, it was a quality half of playing within the offense (0.22 EPA per play and 4.2 total EPA on 19-plays).

However, after halftime, Lawrence was one for six with a late third quarter interception on a Travis Hunter underthrow – Trevor’s...