Jaguars, Bengals Re-watch: 10 Observations from Week 2

The Jacksonville Jaguars dropped a heartbreaker in week two at Cincinnati. After providing the live takeaways and lingering questions from this weeks’ game, we take a closer review of the matchup after evaluating the televised gameplay. As a note, this review is based on the non-all-22 film, while being published before the PFF grades are released (in an effort to remain truly uninfluenced and unbiased on what we see). Additionally, this style of review knowingly places some limitations on evaluating secondary play without confirming the full coverage looks. With that said, let’s get into some takeaways from the Jaguars’ 31-27 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

*Any opinions noted are those of Travis and not of the entire BCC staff. Of course, anyone can disagree when evaluating film. Any noted EPA, Success Rate, or other data was retrieved from rbsdm.com. Additional data provided by NFL Pro and NextGenStats.

Glossary:

• EPA = expected points added (statistical metric used in football analytics to measure how well a team performs relative to expectation on an individual play, based on factors like field position, down and distance, and time remaining to quantify how many points a team is expected to score on a drive)
• SR = success rate (percent of plays with positive EPA)
• 1st% = percent of plays that earned first downs
• CPOE = completion percentage over expected
• ADoT = average depth of target
• ADoT and CMP% may not match official statistics due to excluding spikes & throwaways

Offense:

1.Quarterback Play Evaluation

• 0.08 EPA per play falls within the 52nd percentile of all QBs between 2010 and 2020 with minimum 5 plays per game
• A total EPA of 3.8 in the 55th percentile
• 58.5 Completion percentage (CMP%)
• 7.5-yards average depth of target (ADOT) is in the 34th percentile
• -5% completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is in the 28th percentile
• 49% Success Rate
• 36% First Down Percentage
• 80.6 Passer Rating

Trevor Lawrence had an extremely up-and-down day on Sunday. His first half performance did not fully fall on his shoulders, as his initial interception came due to immediate pressure from Trey Hendrickson, as he let the ball go. However, there were additional moments in the first half where Lawrence was obviously pressing to make a play, such as his underthrown deep ball attempt to Brian Thomas Jr, that was deflected into Travis Hunter, who dropped the ricochet. Additionally, Cincinnati dropped a deflected, contested Travis Hunter target that was initially ruled an interception, but overturned after review.

However, in the second half, Lawrence made up for many of those opportunities, hitting Dyami Brown and Thomas Jr in the touchdown for would-be touchdown opportunities where his supporting cast was unable to capitalize. Brown dropped a touchdown pass with 4:30 remaining in the game, Thomas Jr failed to attack the ball on his third-down endzone target with 11:52 remaining in the game, and Thomas dropped the final offensive snap that likely would’ve extended the...