Daily Norseman
The 4-5 Minnesota Vikings take on the 6-3 Chicago Bears on Sunday in what now is must-win game for the Vikings if they want to maintain a credible path to the postseason.
The Vikings’ chance of making the playoffs has a significant swing depending on the outcome of the game on Sunday- the Bears even more so.
The Vikings have just a 13% or so chance to make the playoffs according to this playoff simulator and with a loss on Sunday that chance drops to just 5% or 1 in 20. With a win, however, there chances improve to 22% or around 1 in 4.5.
If the Vikings are able to win on Sunday, they could find themselves in a surprisingly close race within the NFC North division.
Here are the current NFC North standings with remaining opponents for each team:
Outside of division opponents, the Lions face what looks to be three playoff-caliber teams in Philadelphia, the Rams, and Pittsburgh. The Bears also face three playoff-caliber teams in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and the 49ers. The Packers face two playoff-caliber teams outside the division in Denver and Baltimore. The Vikings face just one playoff-caliber team outside the division in Seattle.
Looking at these schedules, it would not be the least bit surprising if the Bears finished 8-9, with losses to the Vikings, Steelers, Eagles, Packers, 49ers, and Lions. I doubt the Bears will be favored in any of those games. The Bears wins have come against teams with a combined .272 record.
It wouldn’t be that surprising if the Lions lost to the Eagles and Rams- they’re the underdog at Philadelphia and likely will be at LA too.
The Packers are now without star tight-end Tucker Kraft and starting center Elgton Jenkins, which are two big blows to the Packers offense, which was struggling at times with them. If the Vikings were able to sweep the Packers like they did last season, and the Packers also lose to the Lions, Broncos, and Ravens- I doubt they’ll be favored in any of those games- and split with the Bears, they would finish 7-9-1.
Lastly, if the Vikings can beat the Bears and sweep both the Packers and the remaining NFC East teams on their schedule (Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants) who will have nothing to play for, they’d be 9-6 not including the Lions game.
That could setup a situation where week 17 the Lions are 10-5 and the Vikings are 9-6. If the Vikings won that game, they would both be 10-6 and the Vikings would have the tie-breaker having swept the Lions. That sets up for the Lions and Vikings both potentially...
