Is the Giants’ 2025 schedule really that tough?

In reality, we have no idea

The NFL schedule makers did the New York Giants no favors this year, saddling them with the league’s toughest schedule:

In fact, you can say that the NFL did the Giants dirty twice - not only do they face what appears to be a daunting set of opponents throughout this season, but Cam Ward is not their rookie quarterback because the Giants, tied with Tennessee and Cleveland for the worst NFL teams last season with 3-14 records, were relegated to the No. 3 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft because their 2024 strength of schedule (SOS) was the toughest of the three teams:

I purposely used language in my first sentence that is similar what fans and the press often use, implicitly attributing bad intentions or incompetence to the NFL in setting their schedule. In fact, as we know, the NFL uses a simple formula in setting the schedule:

• Two games against each division opponent
• One game against each team in a given other NFC division, rotating by year
• One game against each team in a given other AFC division, rotating by year
• One game against the team in the other two NFC divisions and one AFC division that finished in the same place in their division standings

On the face of it, it sounds pretty fair - 14 of the 17 games in principle should have a random distribution of difficulties, and the other three ostensibly give the basement-dwelling Giants an advantage over their division rivals by matching them with other basement dwellers (Bears, 49ers, Patriots in 2025).

The problem is that, excluding the 2020 “NFC Least,” The NFC East often produces a couple of really good teams that the Giants have to play twice. Usually it’s Philadelphia and Dallas, but wouldn’t you know it, the year that Dallas sinks, Washington rises. The biggest reason the Giants’ schedule is more difficult than those of the Eagles and Commanders is that the Giants play each of them twice while each of them plays the Giants twice.

We might imagine a more egalitarian schedule for the fourth place Giants, e.g., one game each against division opponents and two games each against all seven other fourth place finishers in both conferences. I don’t think the Eagles, Chiefs, etc. would go for that, though. The best way for the Giants to improve their strength of schedule next year? Play better this year, especially in your own division.

That brings us to another question, though: How much does strength of schedule actually matter?

On the face of it, the situation does not look good. Here’s what happened to the teams facing the toughest schedule the past eight years:

Not a single one got past the Wild Card Game, and only two made it that far. Doesn’t look good. Don’t despair, though. Here’s what happened to the teams with the easiest schedules:

Three did make the playoffs, but four did not, and none even made...