Is Matthew Stafford really that bad in the cold?

One of the primary talking points when it comes to the Los Angeles Rams playing the Chicago Bears on Sunday at Soldier Field is the weather. The Rams play in California while the Bears have played their last three home games in the cold. Matthew Stafford is 1-9 in cold, rainy, or snowy conditions since joining the Rams and his completion percentage drops when the temperature falls below 20 degrees.

It’s a talking point that’s more tired than than Matthew Stafford not being able to win the big game or win in the playoffs after he left Detroit. Stafford went on to win big games in 2021, including four in the playoffs. Stafford and the Lions were always the six seed and never got a home playoff game. Against the Cowboys in the lone opportunity that the Lions did have to win, controversial officiating played a role. Still, in two out of his three playoff games, Stafford threw for over 300 yards.

The cold weather narrative made sense when it was Jared Goff who grew up in California and never left the state. It doesn’t make sense, especially in the context of quarterback wins, when it comes to Stafford who played in the NFC North for the majority of his career.

For example, Stafford has played in three games under 40 degrees since joining the Rams. In two of those games, he threw for 300 yards, five total touchdowns, and one interception. The Rams lost those two games. Stafford threw for 110 yards with one touchdown and an interception in the third of those games and the Rams won 19-9.

In the two games that Stafford had a winning stat line, the Rams lost. In the game that Stafford wasn’t at his best, they won. It’s another example of why using quarterback wins as a stat is largely meaningless, especially without context.

On Sunday against the Bears, the temperature at kickoff is going to be under 20 degrees, with a chance of snow and winds over 10 miles per hour. Weather could certainly play a factor. However, Stafford’s throws have never had an issue cutting through the wind and precipitation.

All temperature data was taken from Pro Football Reference box scores. In games under 40 degrees, Stafford is 7-11. He’s been favored in eight of them and is 5-3. Stafford has also had a quarterback rating of 100 or more in seven games and is 5-2 in those games.

The stat lines themselves outside of a few aren’t bad. Stafford has averaged 260.6 yards per game and has thrown 30 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. His worst games may have been against the Jets last year, against the Bears in 2018, the snow bowl against the Eagles, and his first cold-weather game. He’s also 4-1 against the Bears in these games.

It’s unlikely that the weather would be such a talking point if the Rams didn’t play in California. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum played college football at Notre Dame and...