Is Kyren Williams contract a good deal for Rams?

Is Kyren Williams contract a good deal for Rams?
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The Los Angeles Rams are usually good about following through on their publicly known intentions and on Tuesday general manager Les Snead completed the stated goal to get Kyren Williams extended before the season. The Rams signed Williams to a three-year, $33 million contract with $23 million guaranteed, giving L.A. control of his rights through the 2028 season.

But was it a good deal for the Rams?

The numbers

Williams’ new money of $11 million per season now ranks seventh in the NFL at the running back position, slotting him right behind Alvin Kamara and Josh Jacobs, but over Joe Mixon, James Connor, David Montgomery, and Rhamondre Stevenson.

One of the reasons teams hesitate to draft running backs early: Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty makes $9 million per season already.

But the big number is $23 million guaranteed, which matters more if that number is FULLY guaranteed vs. being partially guaranteed for injury. A fully-guaranteed $23 million would be the fourth-biggest for a veteran running back, right behind Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry, while a total guarantee would be close to Alvin Kamara’s number and a little easier to swallow.

In both cases, Williams is almost certainly going to play for the Rams through 2027, while the final year of the deal isn’t likely to guarantee his stay beyond that. In fact, it is more likely than not that Williams won’t play out his contract based on how most veteran deals go these days and given that he’s a 25-year-old running back, this is probably his only extension with the Rams.

If the Rams had not extended Williams, any attempt to holdout would have probably ended early in the season, if not before, then L.A. could have waited until 2026 to evaluate his future value to the team. Snead opted not to take that risk and instead chose the risk of paying a running back.

The importance of Kyren to the Rams

Every Rams fan knows how big of a role Williams has played for Sean McVay in the past two seasons. Whereas day two picks Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson fell flat in McVay’s offense, the fifth rounder Williams has proven that athleticism isn’t everything.

Williams is the closest thing to a full-time back as any in the NFL:

Since 2023, Williams ranks:

  • 2,443 rushing yards is third-most
  • 87.3 yards per game is fourth-most
  • 26 rushing touchdowns is tied with Jahmyr Gibbs for fourth (2nd among RBs)
  • 544 rushing attempts is third-most despite missing six games
  • 54.6% success rate on rush attempts is second-best (minimum 300 carries)
  • 147 first down runs is 2nd-most
  • 2,831 yards from scrimmage is 7th-most

If the NFL was still paying players based purely on performance as we may have seen 10 to 30 years ago, Williams may be hailed as a top-3 running back and paid as such. However, in a more analytical age, questions surround his individual value to the Rams and whether or not...