Turf Show Times
How likely is Matthew Stafford’s return? Is it time to worry?
After the Los Angeles Rams granted Matthew Stafford’s agent permission to speak with other teams, it’s now time to question the likelihood of the quarterback’s return for the 2025 season.
Many in the Rams community on social media and elsewhere have cautioned that there’s nothing to worry about since the latest report—that this maneuver simply allows the player and team to gauge worth outside of Los Angeles.
But the fact that we’ve gotten to this point means that it’s time to worry if you want Stafford back with the Rams this season.
Stafford’s agent wouldn’t be allowed to talk with other teams if it was a certainty that he’d be in Los Angeles for next season. If the Rams haven’t contemplated moving on, then we wouldn’t be here at this stage. I’m sure that the team does want Stafford back, but they are attempting to thread a needle between (1) the short-term nature of Stafford’s remaining career, (2) maintaining salary cap flexibility for the career primes of Jared Verse and Puka Nacua, and (3) finding a quarterback that can grow with the rest of an otherwise young roster.
How likely is is that Stafford will return to the Rams? Let’s take a look at the scenarios from all angles.
Speaking with other teams to gauge value introduces more complex variables, such as return trade compensation if say the New York Giants wanted to acquire the quarterback and give him a new contract. While in a vacuum the Giants might be willing to pay Stafford $60M annually over three years, for example, they also must weigh the cost of any draft capital they’d sent to LA in a trade.
Would New York still be willing to commit to Stafford at that aforementioned mark if they also have to give the Rams an early second young pick? Other teams are going to look at the package as a whole, and the more they have to give up as part of a trade the less favorable Stafford’s potential contract extension could become.
With that in mind, the structure of involving other teams might actually work in the Rams’ favor. Stafford and his representation probably have a value in mind for a new contract, but seeing that other teams aren’t willing to go to that mark when it also costs them draft capital might show the player that his best option is to return to Los Angeles.
Stafford’s best chance to succeed—depending on how important that is to him in his range of priorities—is with the Rams. He has the support of an elite play caller and offensive designer in Sean McVay. He’d have a number one receiver with Puka Nacua, and an offensive line that has been revamped in recent years. That doesn’t even mention the young talent on defense that carried LA in...
