Daily Norseman
Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy has completed his first four games in the NFL. That’s not a big sample size for any sort of definitive judgment about McCarthy- usually around game 25 is when you might begin to form some conclusions about the trajectory of a young quarterback, but even then it may be too early depending on the circumstances- like with Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. But while we may not have a good idea about McCarthy’s trajectory until after next season, assuming he’s healthy for the remainder of this season and next, we can begin to look at areas of his game, how he’s developing, and where he needs to improve.
NFL quarterbacks need to do at least four things well to have successful careers as a starter. Those include throwing the ball accurately, making good decisions, pocket poise/management, and processing/progressing quickly and accurately. Being able to operate and create well off schedule including making plays running the ball complete the package of desirable qualities in a quarterback.
In terms of accuracy, McCarthy has started below expectations. His adjusted completion percentage is just 68.4% overall, which is second-to-last among starting quarterbacks this season. Adjusted completion percentage represents completed passes not including receiver drops, throwaways, spikes, or tipped/batted passes. McCarthy’s accuracy with a clean pocket is also just 68.2% over his first four games, which is quite low. North of 80% is what you want from a starting quarterback out of a clean pocket. What that translates to on a per game basis is needing to be accurate on about four more passes. That’s not a huge gap but getting there consistently involves continuing to improve fundamentals and developing more of a rapport with his receivers- particularly Justin Jefferson.
Looking back, it shouldn’t be a surprise that McCarthy and Jefferson appear to be struggling more with their rapport than McCarthy and Jordan Addison or Jalen Nailor for the simple reason that they still haven’t practiced much together. Last offseason before he was injured, McCarthy was working with the second team offense and didn’t throw to Jefferson. This offseason, Jefferson missed pretty much all of training camp with a mild hamstring issue. And then McCarthy was out for six weeks during the season. So, a year and a half after McCarthy was drafted, McCarthy and Jefferson have only a little over a month of practice time together. That shows up on the tape below, which includes all of McCarthy’s targets to Jefferson so far this season.
McCarthy has thrown several inaccurate passes targeting Jefferson, and some technically accurate passes but with poor ball placement. But Jefferson also has a few drops, ran the wrong route that resulted in a pick six, and hasn’t done particularly well in contested catch situations when McCarthy has targeted him. The disconnect is especially apparent on deep balls, as McCarthy has targeted Justin Jefferson on 8 of his 20 deep passes, completing just one of them for 50 yards with 3 interceptions.
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