Buffalo Rumblings
Maybe even panic-button concerned
I know there’s been a lot of consternation among fans about the Buffalo Bills’ defense this season, but overall I haven’t been too worried. They’ve only allowed more than 30 points in three contests — which came against the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, and Detroit Lions; none of which are slouches. I’m not saying the Bills don’t have defensive flaws, but I’m not worried about the defense.
Overall, I don’t think I’m an arrogant fan or writer either — which I think lends some credence to the premise of this article. If the Bills’ defense doesn’t have a big bounce-back this week against the New England Patriots, I will officially be worried.
As far as scope of metrics goes, per-drive ones are my favorites. One opportunity with the ball. What can you do with it? If you’re the New England Patriots in 2024 the answer has typically been “not much.”
Starting with the key measure of points per drive, the Patriots average 1.55 this season. That’s 29th in the league. If you’re a fan of my Rule of Four like you should be, that’s in the bottom four — which I refer to as the “terrible” tier.
They’re slightly better when it comes to scoring rate. New England scores on 31.1% of their drives, which is the 28th-rated team in the league. That narrowly avoids the “terrible” label, landing at “bad.”
In turnovers, their 21st-ranked rate of 12.2% puts them in the average bucket. That sounds like a strength and, yes, it’s something to build on. But what it also means is they’re not handing the ball over at a high rate yet their drives still manage to stall.
The Patriots are also average in time of possession and yards per drive (18th and 23rd respectively). They’re okay at holding on to the ball and gaining some yards — it’s getting points out of the drive that’s been problematic.
While I love per-drive measures, per-play ones aren’t too far behind. Per play metrics allow run versus pass conversations better, for instance.
When it comes to yards per play, overall the Pats are 28th in the league — moving the ball 4.82 yards on average which puts them in the bad tier. Their 4.56 yards on the ground per play is actually 10th in the league. That’s still average per my Rule of Four, but close to the good tier.
The passing game drags them down considerably. At 5.52 yards per play on passing attempts, that’s 30th in the league. For instance, the Bills’ 7.76 yards per play on passing attempts is 2.24 yards higher, or over 40%. That’s only fifth in the NFL.
One thing I glance at yearly is the overlap in the NFL when it comes to the best running teams versus the worst passing ones. Over the years I’ve come to the conclusion that there are not too many...
